Bitcoin has found a rhythm – every 24 hours, step it down another $100. The progress may not be in the direction that “hodlers” might want, unless you prefer to short, but the action has been consistent. Volatility has waned, as well, and as everyone knows, when the Bollinger Bands tighten for Bitcoin, it tends to explode in one direction or another.
Guessing at that direction might be fool’s play at the moment, if you are waiting on the sidelines and trying to decide when to jump back into the market. A recent study released by researchers at Binance suggests that “hodling” might be he best course to follow, the reason being that Bitcoin gains tend to take place on a few selected days out of a year. In other words, if you are not in, you may not win. The report received mixed opinions from traders in the audience, many noting the ability to short, as a way to make up the differences and to then actually come out ahead.
Most analysts are settled on a “bearish” take over this weekend, not venturing too far away from the present narrative that points south before an upward surge can be possible. There are optimists, however, and they hang their hopes on this chart, courtesy of CCN:
For many observers, they can only see a declining channel to nowhere, other than more down, but for the optimists in the crowd, it surely looks like a “Pennant and Flagpole”, formation, also known as a “continuation” pattern, which means it only signifies a brief consolidation phase before the “Flagpole” trend continues. This 12-hour chart depicts this subtle view better than on other time frames. The height of the pole also suggests a surge toward $11,300, if previous reactions are any indication about what could happen.
There is also another group of “well-wishers” that look at the daily version of the BTC chart and see a well-defined “Falling Wedge” pattern. Ethereum World News points out: “According to the technical analysis site “The Pattern Site,” legendary chartist Tom Bulkowski’s studies have found that falling wedges break upward 68% of the time, and break upward by an average of 38%. For some context, a 38% jump from current prices would bring Bitcoin near $11,000.”
There are several other weekend musings worthy of your consideration. Here is a brief review of the more notable ones:
We are now mid-way into November, a month that has been favorable for Bitcoin, if you ignore last year when it suddenly dropped off a cliff. We are still in a long and protracted ranging period of price behavior. The near-term price bumps are difficult to predict with any timing certainty, but the general long-term narrative is that Bitcoin will go up. If you believe in the research from Binance, a “Buy-and-Hold” strategy may pay off in the end, and, if analysts are correct, you might get one more chance to gobble up bargains.