Yesterday’s anxiety about escalating Middle Eastern conflict has given way to broad-based relief buying, with European peers joining London’s rally. 

The DAX has risen by 2.1%, the CAC 40 by 2.3%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 by 2.2%. The FTSE 250, often a better measure of domestic sentiment in the UK, is also surging, up 1.7%.

The ECB’s widely anticipated 25-basis-point rate hike, delivered yesterday as expected and lifting the deposit rate to 2.25%, has been quickly digested and is no longer the story.

FTSE 100 Top Risers: Airlines and Miners Lead the Charge

IAG (+6.38%) is the standout performer of the morning. The owner of British Airways and Iberia is surging as peace deal hopes drag oil prices sharply lower. 

With jet fuel being the single largest cost for any airline, lower oil means dramatically improved margin assumptions for carriers, and investors have piled in accordingly.

Rolls-Royce (+5.25%) is the second-biggest riser. The engine maker’s fortunes are closely tied to long-haul aviation hours. 

As peace calms airspace and travel demand expectations improve, Rolls-Royce is a natural beneficiary. 

Antofagasta (+5.08%) is close behind. The copper miner is benefiting from a broad risk-on rotation, with base metals jumping on the improved global outlook. Copper is often treated as a bellwether for economic confidence.

Elsewhere, McBride shares have plunged, while Debenhams Group (Boohoo) has rallied so far today. 

On Thursday, Hugo Boss jumped following news of a takeover bid from Frasers Group.

FTSE 100 Top Fallers: The Oil Price Sting

The flipside of falling oil prices is felt in the energy sector…

BP (-3.83%) and Shell (-2.70%) are the session’s biggest decliners, with crude’s retreat on peace deal optimism squeezing both majors. 

Centrica (-1.01%) is also softer, with lower gas prices feeding through to the British Gas owner’s near-term earnings outlook.

SpaceX Goes Public

SpaceX is set to make its market debut today in one of the most highly anticipated listings in years. 

The listing of Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company is the largest ever, with the company locking in an IPO price of $135 per share.

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The Group confirmed it has subleased its 1.1 million sq. ft facility in Elizabethtown, Pennsylvania, to global third-party logistics operator ID Logistics. The warehouse, which opened in August 2023 and was shut down just 15 months later in November 2024, had become a symbol of the company’s strategic missteps — costing approximately $124 million in rent, operating costs and capital investment before it was mothballed.

With around 8.5 years remaining on the lease and approximately $100 million in future lease and holding costs looming, investors had long viewed the site as one of the most pressing liabilities on the Group’s balance sheet. Friday’s announcement confirmed those concerns have now been materially addressed, with ID Logistics set to take occupation from 1 August 2026 through to the end of the Group’s existing lease term.

The financial impact is substantial. The sublease generates an unaudited non-cash exceptional credit of approximately £40 million to the income statement, to be reflected in H1 results. Annual lease costs are also set to fall sharply — from £13 million in the current year to £8 million in FY28 and just £6 million in FY29 — as $9.5 million in average annual sublease rental income is fully realised.

CEO Dan Finley described the deal as “a significant development,” noting that closing and subleasing the US DC was one of his first priorities upon taking the role, and that the Group’s “turnaround strategy continues at pace.”

For investors, the deal represents a clear, quantifiable step in Debenhams Group’s pivot to an asset-light model, giving renewed confidence that management is executing on its restructuring promises.

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In a trading update issued on 12 June 2026, McBride said it has experienced sustained and escalating cost pressures in petrochemical-derived and energy-intensive raw materials — a direct consequence of the protracted Middle East conflict. The Group had flagged potential risks as far back as its April 2026 update, but said the situation has since deteriorated beyond its original forecasts, necessitating a second phase of price recovery actions with customers.

McBride operates on a three-month pricing mechanism, meaning there is an unavoidable lag between rising input costs and the ability to pass them on. The company now expects the financial pain to be concentrated in Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27, leaving it with a shortfall it cannot fully recover in the near term.

The crux of the profit warning: the Group now expects FY26 and FY27 adjusted EBITA to land 5–10% below current analyst consensus — implying a miss of as much as £6.4 million on FY26’s consensus figure of £64.2 million, and up to £7.1 million short of FY27’s £70.6 million estimate. Management offered some comfort by insisting performance should normalise heading into Q2 FY27 and beyond, and noted that inflationary environments historically boost demand for value-for-money private-label products.

On a more positive note, McBride confirmed its acquisition of Eurotab — owner of European detergent specialist Eurotab Group — remains on track to complete around 1 July 2026, a deal expected to bolster its Unit Dosing division’s European footprint. However, investors chose to focus squarely on the near-term earnings hit, sending volume surging to over one million shares on the day.

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The bank’s stock climbed from around 53p in late November to peak at over 113p by mid-February.

The surge was fuelled by a combination of factors: improving clarity around the long-running motor finance commission scandal, the Bank of England’s ongoing rate-cutting cycle bolstering net interest margin hopes, and upbeat sentiment across the wider UK banking sector.

Since early February, however, the shares have traded above and below the 100p mark, consolidating gains rather than pushing on. Trading volumes have normalised and momentum indicators have flattened, suggesting the market is waiting for a fresh catalyst before committing to a new directional move.

The most immediate trigger is results. Lloyds is due to publish its half-year numbers at the end of July, and investors will be scrutinising net interest income guidance, dividend intentions and any further provisions linked to car finance liabilities — an overhang that continues to cloud the outlook.

Analysts remain broadly constructive. The consensus price target is around 120.65p, suggesting a potential 22.9% upside from current levels. The bank’s digital transformation push — serving more than 21 million mobile users — is seen as a longer-term margin-accretive play.

For now, patience may be the watchword. A clean set of results and further legal certainty around motor finance could be the catalysts needed to break the stock out of its ranging phase and retest the bulls’ conviction.

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The bank said the telecommunications giant continues to face structural headwinds in its key German market despite a broader recovery across European telecoms.

Analyst Maurice Patrick cited intense competition in Germany as the primary drag, noting that while much of the European telecom sector is returning to positive revenue and EBITDA growth, Vodafone remains an outlier.

Germany is Vodafone’s largest single market and has been a persistent source of underperformance, weighing on group-level results even as the company executes a broader strategic restructuring.

The downgrade comes at a busy moment for Vodafone. Earlier this week, reports emerged that VodafoneThree, the recently merged UK entity combining Vodafone and Three UK, had made a bid for TalkTalk’s consumer operations, a move that would further consolidate the UK broadband and telecoms landscape and add a fixed-line subscriber base to the combined company’s footprint.

Vodafone shares climbed 0.8% Thursday despite the downgrade, a resilient reaction that reflects the stock’s resilience. The shares are up 15.5% year-to-date and have gained 56.9% over the past 12 months.

According to data compiled by TradingView, four analysts have a Buy rating on Vodafone, with six at Hold and seven at Sell.

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The stock opened at €38.79, briefly spiking to an intraday high of €40.52 — notably above the offer price — before settling at €39.76, compared with a prior close of €36.46. Volume surged to over 3.4 million shares, roughly nine times the previous session’s level, underscoring the significant market reaction.

Frasers Group, controlled by British billionaire Mike Ashley, is already an active anchor shareholder in Hugo Boss with approximately a 25% stake and board representation.

The move came just one day after Frasers reversed its challenge to Supervisory Board Chairman Stephan Sturm and dropped proposals to reshape board composition — a rapid strategic pivot that preceded the takeover announcement.

However, analysts are far from enthusiastic about the terms. Alexander Zienkowicz at mwb Research described the offer as a “lowball bid,” noting it is only marginally above the last closing price and provides “little in the way of a control premium.”

In a note published Thursday, mwb maintained its HOLD rating and €36.50 price target, arguing the offer “does not fully reflect the brand value, cash-flow potential or possible normalisation beyond the current reset year.”

Zienkowicz added that the bid “looks opportunistic” and is “financially unattractive for long-term shareholders,” though €38.00 may establish a short-term valuation floor.

The fact that Hugo Boss shares are trading above the offer price suggests the market may be anticipating either a sweetened bid or a competitive approach from a rival suitor.

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Oracle reported fiscal Q4 earnings on Wednesday evening, revealing full-year capital expenditure guidance roughly $20–25 billion above consensus, driven by accelerated prepayments for data centre components. Oracle’s own stock fell more than 8.5% on margin concerns, but the read-through for memory and chip suppliers was unambiguously bullish — and SanDisk was a clear winner.

Shares opened at $1,672.26, broke sharply higher as Oracle’s implications digested, and hit an intraday high of $1,895 before settling at $1,881.51 on volume of 13.4 million shares.

The move is grounded in fundamentals. SanDisk’s most recent quarter posted revenues of $5.95 billion — up 97% sequentially — beating its own guidance. Q4 guidance calls for $7.75–$8.25 billion in revenue and EPS of $30–$33. Zacks carries the stock as a Rank #1 Strong Buy, and estimated current-year EPS growth stands at +2,096.7%.

The broader chip complex surged in sympathy — KLAC +12.92%, LRCX +12.65%, MU +11.66%, ARM +11.32% — making semiconductors the dominant theme of the session.

Adding macro fuel, President Trump announced that Iran’s supreme leader had approved a peace deal and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen upon signing, lifting the Dow roughly 1,000 points intraday. Iran’s state media reportedly contradicted the claim, leaving the situation unresolved, but the peace signal was enough to sustain a broad risk-on rally — with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rising strongly .

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The San Jose-based company posted Q2 revenue of $6.62 billion, up 13% year-over-year and ahead of the Yahoo Finance analyst consensus estimate of approximately $6.45 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $5.96, comfortably topping the Street’s expectation of $5.81.

CEO Shantanu Narayen pointed to robust AI-driven demand as the engine of growth, noting that Adobe’s AI-first annualized recurring revenue (ARR) tripled year-over-year to surpass $500 million. Total Adobe ARR exiting the quarter stood at $27.10 billion, which includes approximately $480 million from its Semrush acquisition. The company also generated $2.17 billion in operating cash flow and repurchased around 8.5 million shares during the period.

Looking ahead, Adobe raised its full-year FY2026 revenue target to $26.50–$26.60 billion and lifted its non-GAAP EPS outlook to $24.35–$24.45. Q3 guidance also topped expectations, with revenue projected at $6.67–$6.72 billion — roughly 3% above prior Wall Street forecasts.

Despite the clean beat-and-raise quarter, shares dropped to around $218.80 in extended trading from a previous close of $233.38. Weighing on sentiment may be the surprise announcement that CFO Dan Durn is departing on June 15, with SVP Steve Day stepping in as interim replacement — adding an element of leadership uncertainty to an otherwise solid report.

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Shares in Tritax Big Box REIT surged nearly 5% on Wednesday after the UK government approved its Manor Farm data centre near Heathrow, in a decision that came as a surprise: just hours earlier that morning the company had told shareholders the ruling would not arrive until 7 July.

The shares closed at 151p on Wednesday, up 4.9% from 144p the previous session, on elevated volume of more than 17 million shares. On Thursday they were trading at 151.6p, a modest further extension of the gain.

Approval and delay notice arrived on the same morning

On Wednesday morning Tritax issued a regulatory announcement stating the Secretary of State had updated the Manor Farm planning timeline to 7 July. Within the same session the decision arrived. The Minister of State for Housing and Planning, Matthew Pennycook, granted consent on behalf of the Secretary of State, according to Alliance News. The Manor Farm scheme targets 107 megawatts of capacity and has been classified as critical national infrastructure. Management has described it as the company’s first foray into artificial intelligence infrastructure, noting last month the project was “primed for launch.”

Manor Farm is one of two data centre schemes Tritax is pursuing. Together with a planned second project in Chelmsford, the two sites represent more than 230 megawatts of capacity, with the potential to generate £58 million of annual rent at targeted yields of 9% to 11% on cost, the company said at its February full-year results.

Planning consent had originally been expected in the second half of 2025 before the Secretary of State called in the application, a step management said it viewed positively. The decision was subsequently signalled for 17 March, then pushed back again before Wednesday’s outcome. With consent secured, the next milestone is agreeing a pre-let before construction begins, with a completion window of between October 2027 and March 2028, according to QuotedData.

The consensus analyst price target for BBOX stands at around 180p, according to EODHD data, well above Thursday’s trading level. At the February results, Chief Executive Colin Godfrey described the data centre push as positioning Tritax for “multi-year compounding growth,” with an ambition to grow adjusted earnings by 50% by 2030.

With planning in hand, the focus now moves to occupier negotiations. Management has previously said that assuming planning and a pre-let are both achieved this year, a substantial part of the capital profit could be recognised in the current financial year, giving the timeline for any tenant announcement added significance.

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The FTSE 100 is up 0.5% in early Thursday trading, despite news of further strikes between the US and Iran. 

The U.S. reportedly launched attacks against multiple targets in Iran, while Iran responded with retaliatory strikes against US forces in the region, specifically mentioning bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan.

Asia-Facing Names Lead the Risers

Prudential and Standard Chartered are among the FTSE 100’s top risers this morning, up 4.4% and 2.9% respectively. 

The stocks came under pressure recently after reports emerged that Hong Kong banks were tightening scrutiny on mainland Chinese clients who open savings and investment accounts in the city. 

Meanwhile, Airtel Africa is up 2.9%, while miners Fresnillo, Anglo American, Antofagasta and Rio Tinto are also moving positively as precious metal prices rise after a sharp sell-off in recent sessions.

On the softer side, Halma has plunged over 10% following its results, while Wizz Air has gained over 3% following its release.

Housebuilders, including Persimmon, Barratt Redrow, and Berkeley Group, are slipping despite a survey published this morning suggesting the UK property market slowdown appears to have bottomed out. 

All Eyes on Frankfurt

Alongside the geopolitical noise, the ECB rate decision is the day’s key scheduled event. 

Markets widely expect the European Central Bank to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% after eurozone inflation jumped again in May. 

Across European markets, Germany’s DAX is down -0.1%, while France’s CAC 40 is trading higher (+0.4%), as well as the Euro Stoxx 50 (+0.7%) and other European bourses.

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Record Passengers, Rising Revenue

The Budapest-headquartered airline carried a record 69.7 million passengers in FY26, up 10% year-on-year, as its fleet expanded by 13.4% to 262 aircraft. Total revenue rose 8% to €5.69 billion, while EBITDA jumped 16.2% to €1.32 billion, pushing the EBITDA margin to 23.2%.

Net Profit Almost Wiped Out

However, net profit was virtually eliminated, collapsing 99.4% to just €1.3 million from €213.9 million in FY25. The airline attributed the decline to higher maintenance and depreciation costs, disruption from the forced cancellation of Middle East routes during the 2025 peak summer season, and the Iran conflict in February 2026 — headwinds estimated to have cost around €50 million, though largely mitigated by fuel hedges. A prior-year deferred tax credit worth €194 million that did not recur in FY26 also significantly distorted the year-on-year comparison.

Improving Operational Picture

On the positive side, the number of grounded aircraft due to GTF engine inspections fell from 42 to 30 by year-end and is now down to 24. Total cash strengthened by 22.5% to €2.1 billion, while net debt edged down slightly to €4.9 billion.

Outlook

Looking ahead, Wizz Air guided for seat capacity growth of up to 25% in Q1 FY27 and high-twenties percent in Q2, though it stopped short of issuing full-year earnings guidance, citing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.

CEO József Váradi said the company remains “well positioned to deliver sustainable growth and create value over the long term.”

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For the 12 months to 31 March 2026, Halma grew revenue 15% to £2.58 billion and adjusted earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) 22% to £594.5 million, both surpassing City forecasts and crossing the £2.5 billion and £500 million milestones for the first time. It was also the company’s 23rd consecutive year of adjusted profit growth.

Organic revenue rose 16%, with the photonics business — which serves the booming data centre industry — contributing around eight percentage points of that growth. However, analysts and investors flagged a growing concern: revenue from a single photonics customer climbed from 15% to 20% of group sales during the year, raising concentration risk warnings.

Halma invested a record £600 million during the year, including £447 million across five acquisitions, with two further deals worth around £75 million completed after the year-end. Adjusted cash conversion remained healthy at 93%, ahead of its 90% target, while net debt stood at a comfortable 1.16 times adjusted EBITDA.

The board raised its total dividend 7% to 24.74p per share — a 47th consecutive year of growth of 5% or more — though the payout came in slightly below the 25.9p the market had anticipated.

Looking ahead, Halma guided for low double-digit organic revenue growth in FY2027, but with shares trading at roughly 36 times forward earnings — well above a sector average of 22 times — analysts at Panmure Liberum noted the premium valuation leaves little room for any disappointment.

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