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Sam Farrah

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Everything posted by Sam Farrah

  1. Sam Farrah

    CHF

    Hi Ali. It certainly looks that way. I would suggest keeping track of the SNB sight deposits each week. It normally suggests that the SNB may be intervening to lower the value of the swiss franc. In the last couple of weeks we have seen the sight deposits increase, which suggests that they are again looking to weaken the swiss franc against other currencies. The sight deposits dropped slightly after the US labelled them as currency manipulators. However, since then we have seen the currency strengthen further and it seems they SNB want to intervene again. So yes, it seems like they already are.
  2. Sam Farrah

    Crypto

    Does anyone have any info on the best crypto brokers or exchanges? and If it is better to use a crypto exchange or a broker that allows you to trade crypto? thanks
  3. Sam Farrah

    CAD

    Just wanted to add to this. I believe that the pressure is starting to mount on the bank of Canada and that they may indicate a rate cut is looming at their next meeting. Could be time to start looking to short the CAD?
  4. Hi Mohammed. I hate to break it to you but 0. Many people seem to believe that they can get into trading and double and triple their account within a few months but this isn't the case. And even if you do somehow manage to do that, you can be sure you will blow it all soon enough. I would suggest you learn as much as possible first and use it to supplement your income. the majority of traders I know are not profitable for at least 3 years before they are able to profit consistently. Unfortunately with these so called 'trading gurus' out their now nowadays who themselves are not profitable, it has made people believe they can become rich immediately through trading. One thing I would ask you to do because I'm sure you won't believe a random stranger online, is to have a look at the worlds top hedge funds and see what their yearly returns are. These are run by some of the top traders in the world, so it should make you think why you think you can beat their returns so easily without having at least a few years in the industry.
  5. Hi Lawrence. I have to firstly admit that I am no Ripple or even crypto expert. However, many traders who I respect and follow have been talking about the coin for a while and are holding positions in it (or so they say). A lot of people seem to be expecting its rise, but as a contrarian that always makes me question the legitimacy of the moves (considering the majority of traders fail). However, the fundamentals do really look good, and I am tempted to invest myself. So while I can't give you a definite yes or no answer, I would say maybe invest a little!
  6. Sam Farrah

    ETF Trading

    Hi Maria... Advantages if these are lower costs associated with them, and they are less liable to tax (in certain countries of course). Also if you have looked at the market recently you may have noticed that nothing seems to stop them from rising!!
  7. Hi Nigel. Now, I know I am extremely late in answering this, but it seems you were most definitely right at the time. At the time of you asking your question the price was at 8085 and by the 26th of June it had reached 13,928 so was definitely a good call. I hope you got in at the level you asked the question. I'm no crypto expert but to me it seems like cryptos work very well with technical analysis so your falling wedge call worked perfectly. If you have stuck with the technicals and crypto I would love to hear how you have got on, since I am looking into it further.
  8. Sam Farrah

    JPY

    I have seen people say that it was never really a safe haven and it was just used as a funding trade, and that when there was risk off we just saw money flow back into the JPY as a result of people unwinding their risk positions. However, I believe it is a simple case of the Japanese economy finally weighing on it's currency. They have had minus interest rates for I don't know how long, they have never met their inflation targets and they seem to have been constantly fighting a losing battle in terms of getting their economy going. And with their GDP data being a big miss and the risks of the coronavirus to their economy in play. I think this has resulted in people starting to see that it is no longer as safe as it used to be. If you are looking for a safe haven asset to buy into I would suggest gold or the dollar.
  9. Sam Farrah

    S&P

    In my opinion it probably will. We have seen the stock market brush off so many different issues and with the fed providing extra liquidity to the market I can definitely see it reaching all time highs, again. I'm in fact starting to question what could provide it with a sustained pullback. They say what goes up must come down, but the market is trying its damn hardest to prove that theory wrong.
  10. I still think we are in the period where UK data only provides a short term affect in moving the currency. I still believe it is mainly down to what happens with and is happening with Brexit. However, that doesn't mean that positive or negative data will have no effect. And, as we have seen today, the pound has sold off against all other major currencies except for the JPY. But the data was positive, so while there was an initial spike in price, I believe the Brexit issues came back into play and we have seen a selloff since.
  11. Sam Farrah

    Euro

    The last time it touched this level was back in 2017 and it does seem a real possibility right now with the risks associated with the EU economy. I definitely think the price will continue to head lower. However, I am wary of predicting something that so many others seem to be predicting as it normally represents a turnaround. So while I think we will see a continued sell off, I would be wary of predicting a low of 1.05.
  12. Sam Farrah

    Gold

    I seem to mention this on most questions here but in my opinion it is always to do with market risks. risks have increased once more and this sees money flow into gold and other risk off assets. In terms of whether it will stay above the 1600 level I think we may see a pull back at some point below 1600 but this will for me only represent another buying opportunity.
  13. I believe so. There are a lot of market risks at the moment and with the par acting as a risk proxy I think this could be a good level to sell further. We have seen a lot of risk off movements this week and this should help a potential sell off. Even with the extremely bad GDP data out of Japan (which weirdly sees the JPY strengthen) we should still see JPY strength. If you also are able to put a volume profile on your chart you will see that there is quite a lot of volume just above the level we are at and so it seems to me that it is a key level to sell at.
  14. Sam Farrah

    XRP

    This week we have already seen XRP shoot up and your right, there are a lot of people talking about it. I do think we could see a sustained rise in XRP, even after the pullback today. There is a lot of momentum in the coin and some positive fundamentals. I am no expert in crypto but from what I have seen and heard, I think XRP could be a good investment .
  15. Sam Farrah

    Bitcoin

    I don't want to be attacked by all the crypto people here but in my humble opinion I don't think so. I believe it is too overvalued where it is currently at and that we could see it lower with other cryptos increasing in price. However, it has been acting as a risk off asset and so it may rise a bit with the current market risks. There is also talk that with an increase in dollar flows comes an increase in BTC price with there being more dollars available to buy into BTC. So that may have some affect. But, to answer your question, I don't think we will see it get to £20k again. Sorry!
  16. Hi Mohammed. This depends on the SNB's stance here. We have seen an extremely weak and weakening Euro in the past few weeks due to a few different fundamentals at play. However, the Swiss National Bank normally likes to keep their currency week in order to help their exports. But they have looked at as currency manipulators from the US government and have had to fall back from weakening their currency which has seen the CHF gain strength as well. They won't want to CHF to become to strong however as it could seriously hurt their economy. So whether they try to weaken their currency by buying others at this level against it will depend entirely on what they do next. My guess would be that they defend this level, but it is really only a guess.
  17. Well first of all there is fear. Markets will price fear into the market and so an increase in those fears will see a sell off. Secondly, and it also has to do with fear as well, is economic slowdown. Fear results in less economic activity amongst consumers and businesses and so we see a slowdown. This will see investors put their money into safe haven assets. With the coronavirus we have also seen the Chinese government lock cities down. This further reduces economic activity. China is a massive exporter and so their economic decline has a massive ripple effect on other nations and this again sees a decline in data and money flowing into safe havens.
  18. Hi Ali. the short answer here Is no. However there is an exception. It is not liable for tax if it is your second income and not classed as your main income. If it is your main income then it is liable for tax and you will need to file a tax return.
  19. I think now we have seen the GBP make a move down towards where it was trading immediately after the result of the general election we could start to see some choppiness. This won't really have much to do with data but more because of comments from both sides of the Brexit negotiations. Once the negotiations really get underway I would expect the pound to be reacting from comments and rumours a lot more frequently causing it to be 'choppy'.
  20. Sam Farrah

    Silver

    We have to also associate silver prices with market risks as it is somewhat of a safe haven and also follows gold slightly. In that case I think due to the easing of market fears as of the last few days we can definitely see a fall. As for how far it falls will depend on if those fears pick up again. I think we will see a further easing and so a further fall in silver prices for the time being. I note that the trendline you are referring to has already broken and so I would be looking around the 17.19 level for it to fall to.
  21. This depends on a couple of outcomes. first how long it will be before China is back up and running. and second, will the China slowdown be enough to affect the Australian economy enough for them to cut rates. If china gets back up and running soon and the coronavirus fears start to die down then I think we could see it run slightly higher. That would then mean a pick up in Australia as well due to the amount of trade between the 2 nations, resulting in a higher AUD. For now I am sitting on the fence for this pair.
  22. Sam Farrah

    EUR/GBP

    Well, I am a little late answering this Jon but it seems you got your answer. The pair broke 0.8420 and 0.84 altogether. This was mainly due to some more bad data out of the EU who seem to be on a downward spiral data wise right now. in my personal opinion I think the pair could drop a lot lower towards the 0.81 area.
  23. No, a CAD interest rate cut has not yet been fully priced in. however, after the last statement from their January rate meeting we have seen the Canadian dollar fall in value. They hinted that a future rate cut could be on the cards, which is in contrast to previous statements we have seen. I believe their tone has changed due to China's oil demand falling and the drop in oil prices having an effect on Canada's economy due to them being a heavy exporter of oil. This means they could cut in the near future, so while traders and investors will be pricing in a chance of a cut, they won't have priced in a nailed on cut in the near future.
  24. I forgot to answer the last part. As for where it could head to, I believe that there is still downside to be priced in and so while I can't give you a definitive answer on whether we will see 118 hit, I do think it is a possibility
  25. The EURJPY has fallen due to a couple of factors. Firstly due to the risks associated with coronavirus we have seen money flow into JPY as a safe haven. There has also been other market risks on top of that but the virus has been the main cause. Secondly we have seen some bad data out of Germany and with it being the biggest economy in Europe and seemingly on a bit of a decline economically, we have seen a drop in the Euro currency as a whole. Europe also has economical issues in other countries which has also contributed to the Euro's decline.
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