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is the USD rally over?


Guest Sam Bouman

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It seems as though the US dollar rally may be over, for now.

For most of 2019 the USD has been going from strength to strength but there is now reason to believe that the rally could stall. This is certainly what trump wants as he has tweeted repeatedly that the USD is too high and has described Powell as someone who “likes raising interest rates”, and with the DXY’s most recent rally stalling again creating a triple top we have since seen it drop from this level back down into structure. 

We have also seen that futures traders are pricing in a 23% chance of a rate cut at the beginning of 2020 and very little chance of another hike this year which should weigh heavy on the dollar and cause a push down.

In the short to medium term we believe that we should see a further decline for the dollar down towards the 96.02 area. This should provide it with a nice platform in order for it to potentially push even higher depending on factors including US-China trade talks, Eurozone slowdown, Brexit. For now though our view is to the sell side.

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