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Is the Aussie dollar about to fall?


Guest Sam Bouman

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The Australian dollar has made some strong gains against the US dollar in the past few weeks, seeing it rise over 150 pips from the 0.6840 level towards the 0.7000 level but I feel the gains it had made against the USD and other pairs will be short lived. 

My reasoning for this always starts with the macroeconomics of a country and what could affect the way its currency is valued so if you only want to read about technicals look away now!

The Australian economy is struggling and the latest construction figures prove this with there being a 13% drop since last year in terms of engineering work done in the first quarter, this is mirroring a lack of growth in the economy.

We have also seen recently comments from Royal Bank of Australia governor Lowe hinting at further rate cuts in order to help the economy cope with the decline in data. There has been falls in the housing market and the US China trade war has affected the economy in Australia.

This leads me to believe that there will be further downside in the Australian dollar, however if we were to get some positive words from Trump regarding negotiations with China I would not be surprised to see a further rise in the AUD before a bigger fall.

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