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Guest Sam Bouman

Should The ECB Be Starting To Worry About The Economic Uncertainty In Europe?


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It seems the EU has some problems on the horizon and there isn’t too much positivity in the economy right now, while inflation expectations have strongly recovered in the US following the stock and oil rally in the first quarter of this year, they have continued to decrease in the Euro area.

The 5Y5Y inflation swap fell from 1.74% in June 2018 to 1.37% in May; this should be a cause for concern for the EU. 

On top of that any escalation of the trade war and Brexit uncertainty will continue to weigh on the economic growth outlook in the medium term, this should generate some volatility in the Eurozone markets.

This makes the euro quite vulnerable at this point, it recently broke below the 1.12 level with many analysts predicting it will reach the 1.10 level in the near future. Any more global uncertainty such as trade wars, Brexit, Iran escalations and it could see investors flock to the safe havens which would mean a drop further in the EURUSD price.

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