What are the markets expecting from the US' non-farm payroll data for June?

[John Naronha]

[Ignatius Bose]

The US Department of Labor is expected to announce the June non-farm payroll data on Friday with markets anticipating the creation of 160,000 new jobs during the month, more than double the 75,000 generated in May. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at multi-decade lows of 3.6%, while wages are expected to edge higher by 0.3% for the month and 3.2% year on year.

According to a survey by ADP, job creation in the private sector is estimated to come in at 102,000, sharply below the 140,000 expected by economists. In addition, the four-week moving average of jobless claims for the week ending 29th June was revised higher by a further 500 to 222,250 from the previous week’s average.

Analysts will be keenly watching the data, not only to keep an eye on the unemployment rate but to get a first-hand view of the wage growth, one of the key barometers for inflation which the Federal Reserve is likely to consider when it meets later this month for its fifth MPC meeting this year.