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Sam Bouman

USD strength

Question

Will we see strength in the USD after a bad nfp? because its a haven. or will the bad data in the US make people move to others like the JPY?

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Hi Sam

In this context the bad NFP number would represent a flight to safe havens. So while price may have initially gone against the US dollar, I feel it would fall sharply soon after ad the USD would gain again. In the case on Friday, the US dollar made immediate gains. 

However, I now believe that due to numbers reducing in some of the coronavirus hotspots, we will start to see more money flow into risk assets which could mean a weakening dollar this week. I don't think this will be sustained for a long period but i am expecting a change in market sentiment right now. 

In terms of your question, you have to assess whether risk is priced in or not. Then decide on a direction of the pair once you have made that decision.

 

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