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Samir 1

USD/JPY forecast

Question

What is your assessment of the USD/JPY? Where do you see the pair trading in June?


 

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Hi Samir,

Thanks for your question. 

USD/JPY has been trading in a range for the last week after it surged higher. It is actually a very tight range as the price action trades between $107.35 and $108.00 for a week now. This consolidation in a tight range has the shape of a bullish rectangle, as the price action formed this range from an uptrend, and after a consolidation (the rectangle), we may see the price action continuing higher. 

“USD continues to trade in a quiet manner and the build-up in momentum from last week has dissipated. [The dollar] is likely to trade sideways for now,” FX Strategists at UOB Group said.

Moreover, the consolidation phase that is conducted in a narrow range tends to explode higher. Hence a break to the upside or lower is expected to be of a strong nature. 

Looking forward, a lot depends on how Trump’s speech on China is going to be perceived by the market. If he takes a more aggressive stance, we may see a risk-off environment that will yield in a lower USD/JPY.

“The risk tones in the market are looking more cautious/defensive and has seen quite a turn of events following the announcement by US president Trump here yesterday. All eyes will be on that now but the dollar in general also isn't faring too well ahead of European trading, so that is adding to the softness in USD/JPY here,” currency analyst Justin Low said.

Hence, I think the best way forward is wait-and-see for the USD/JPY pair. If there was no risk associated with Trump, I’d say that the pair is primed to trade higher, however, the US-China tensions may drag the entire market lower. In the short-term, any move lower is likely to be stopped at $106.80, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is located.


 

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