AUD/NZD – Long-term Bearish Outlook

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Updated: 20 May 2020

Good day traders! The long-term outlook for the AUD/NZD might still be bearish with price currently experiencing a probable corrective phase. Since the all-time high in 2011, the AUD/NZD has been declining and might have completed a 4th wave triangle correction in August 2018. If this proves to be correct, then the 5th wave lower already started but has not completed yet.

After the contracting triangle pattern ended in August 2018, price dropped lower but since early 2019 the price action has been defined by large and volatile swings in both directions, which could resemble that of an Expanding Triangle.

Since March this year, price experienced a decent pump to the upside which has not yet taken out last year November’s high. I would expect that high to be taken out at 1.0865 at some stage but if a correction lower takes place before that, then we could be presented with a short-term buying opportunity that targets that high (keeping in mind that a potential larger decline might follow if this analysis proves to be correct).

More updates to follow.

Bias: Short-term bullish but bearish over the long-term.

Potential Target: 1.0865 after a short-term correction lower.

Until next time, have a great day and stay safe!

Richard Krugel