upside risks into ECB Meeting
- The European Central Bank (ECB) Meeting should not provide too much in the way of new information today.
- However, the market reacted positively to the last ECB Meeting (after an initial spike lower), as participants viewed the outcome as far less dovish than anticipated.
- Should this them continue, the threat for EURUSD is to the upside.
- This would be reinforced by the recent Euro strength on the back of Brexit deal hopes and US Dollar weakness, as in a current “risk on” phase, the US Dollar losses its safe haven appeal.
- We see the risks for EU~RUSD skewed to the upside for today.
EURUSD: Still a rebound bias
A Wednesday small bounce from above 1.1100, to try to reject negative pressures from Tuesday’s setback and to hang onto upside forces from Friday’s surge through a notable August resistance at 1.1164 after Thursday’s strong advance through key 1.1110 (for an intermediate-term bull shift), to keep risks higher for Thursday.
- We see an upside bias for 1.1154; break here aims for .1183/91 then maybe 1.1229.
- But below 1.1100 aims towards 1.1063.