upside risks into ECB Meeting

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Updated: 24 October 2019
  • The European Central Bank (ECB) Meeting should not provide too much in the way of new information today.
  • However, the market reacted positively to the last ECB Meeting (after an initial spike lower), as participants viewed the outcome as far less dovish than anticipated.
  • Should this them continue, the threat for EURUSD is to the upside.
  • This would be reinforced by the recent Euro strength on the back of Brexit deal hopes and US Dollar weakness, as in a current “risk on” phase, the US Dollar losses its safe haven appeal.
  • We see the risks for EU~RUSD skewed to the upside for today.

EURUSD: Still a rebound bias

A Wednesday small bounce from above 1.1100, to try to reject negative pressures from Tuesday’s setback and to hang onto upside forces from Friday’s surge through a notable August resistance at 1.1164 after Thursday’s strong advance through key 1.1110 (for an intermediate-term bull shift), to keep risks higher for Thursday.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.1154; break here aims for .1183/91 then maybe 1.1229.
  • But below 1.1100 aims towards 1.1063.