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Hitting resistance

Oil

Oil is +5% in 2 days, impressive given the fact equity markets have actually sold off.

I have been bullish oil for some time, but I doubt oil has the momentum to break out properly here. 58 is very big resistance level. Oil over time remains stuck in a boring range with supports around 52 and resistance around here at 58. A possibly overshooting could be in the making, but I would start offloading longs here. Shorting outright is probably pre mature, but something I would start looking at here as well (Chart above).

Oil volatility has come off sharply since the Aramco attacks. Hedging or speculating via options is much cheaper here than a few weeks ago. A simple strategy to hedge longs here would be relatively cheap put spreads.

Should oil make some sort of reversal here, then outright shorts is something I would look for. It would be a short term trade, just for a pullback with a tight stop above the resistance levels here.

by Aleksandar Adamovic November 22, 2019
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