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EURUSD Pair Rises, Then Falls on Upbeat US Jobs and GDP Data

Simon Mugo trader
Updated 29 Jun 2023

The EURUSD currency pair was trading down over 30 pips at writing as the US dollar rallied against the euro, which had rallied to new daily highs earlier today. Several positive releases from the US docket in the early American session drove the dollar's rally.


YOUR CAPITAL IS AT RISK. 76% OF RETAIL CFD ACCOUNTS LOSE MONEY.


Some positive US releases include the US weekly initial jobless claims data, which fell to 239,000 new claims beating analysts' estimates of 265,000 new jobless claims. The continuing claims declined unexpectedly in the week ending June 17, 2023, indicating that the US jobs market remained robust.

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The initial jobless claims' 4-week moving average was 257,500, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest level for this average since November 13, 2021, when it was 260,000.

The US dollar was also boosted by the release of the US real GDP print for Q1, which came in at 2%, surprising investors and analysts alike, given that the median analysts' estimate was 1.4%. The positive GDP growth data was a significant bullish trigger for the dollar. 

The currency pair was heading lower as the US dollar strengthened against the euro and other major currencies as tracked by the US Dollar Index. 

According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the GDP “was revised up 0.7 percentage point from the second estimate, reflecting upward revisions to exports, consumer spending, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment.

The improvements in GDP were partly offset by the downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and private inventory investment. Imports were revised down.”

The EURUSD currency pair had rallied higher earlier today, driven by positive investor sentiment despite the hawkish views expressed by the ECB, the BoE and the Federal Reserve at yesterday’s ECB event. 

The upbeat German CPI also boosted the pair, which rose by 6.4% compared to last month, showing that inflation in the country remains stubbornly high. Other releases from the Eurozone had a minimal impact on the currency pair. 

*This is not investment advice. 

The EURUSD price chart.

The EURUSD currency pair was trading down 33.2 pips (0.30%) as the US dollar rallied against the euro.


YOUR CAPITAL IS AT RISK. 76% OF RETAIL CFD ACCOUNTS LOSE MONEY.


Simon has over six years of professional trading experience across FX, commodities and equities. He has a strong passion for financial markets and is particularly focused on price action trading