No Federal Reserve, European Central Bank or Bank of England rate decision falls within the week of Monday 28 September to Friday 2 October, so the calendar’s tension sits in the data rather than in a vote.
The single highest-volatility entry is Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report, forecast to show employment growth slowing to 100,000 in September against 162,000 the previous month, a figure markets will use to judge how much further the Fed’s newly higher policy rate can be sustained without cooling the labour market too sharply.
That print follows a week in which all three major central banks were digesting a hawkish turn rather than the rate-cut path some recent commentary had assumed: the Fed lifted its target range to 3.75-4.00% and the ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50%, both effective in mid-September, while the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% throughout.
A UK trader watching GBP/USD, gilts and US-exposed London stocks has two pre-positioning catalysts to navigate before Friday’s release: Wednesday’s core PCE inflation data and Thursday’s ISM manufacturing survey, both parsed for signs officials are done tightening.
Monday
- European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks, no time specified. No other watchlist entries land today, and both the London Stock Exchange and US markets trade a normal session with no holidays or early closes.
Tuesday
- 15:00 UK: US CB Consumer Confidence, September. Consensus 90.0, previous 89.4.
- 15:00 UK: US JOLTs Job Openings, August. Consensus 7.23m, previous 7.271m.
- Federal Reserve officials Waller, Musalem, Williams and Bowman speak, no times specified.
Wednesday
- 07:00 UK: UK GDP Growth Rate, Q2 final. Vendor data shows 0.4% quarter-on-quarter (previous 0.6%) and 1.2% year-on-year (previous 0.9%).
- 10:30 UK: Bank of England Financial Policy Committee minutes.
- 13:00 UK: German preliminary CPI, September, year-on-year. Consensus 3.1%, previous 2.9%.
- 13:15 UK: US ADP Employment Change, September. Consensus +70,000, previous +38,000.
- 13:30 UK: US Core PCE Price Index, August. Consensus 0.3% month-on-month (previous 0.2%); year-on-year consensus 3.4% (previous 3.3%).
- Federal Reserve officials Kashkari, Goolsbee and Barkin speak, no times specified.
Wednesday is the heaviest single day of the week by volume of entries, running from the UK’s own final Q2 growth figure at 07:00 through to the US inflation data at 13:30, and it sets up the pre-positioning for Friday’s payrolls report.
Thursday
- 09:00 UK: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks.
- 08:00 UK: European Central Bank General Council meeting (non-monetary-policy).
- 15:00 UK: US ISM Manufacturing PMI, September. Consensus 54.8, previous 54.6.
- Nike (NYSE: NKE) reports fiscal first-quarter earnings after the US market close, consensus EPS $0.44.
- Federal Reserve officials Waller, Collins, Schmid, Williams, Bowman and Logan speak, no times specified; ECB President Lagarde also speaks again, no time specified.
Friday
- 09:30 UK: UK CPI, September, year-on-year. No consensus, previous 3.1%.
- 10:00 UK: Eurozone flash HICP, September, year-on-year. Consensus 3.5%, previous 3.2%; core consensus 2.6%, previous 2.4%.
- 13:30 UK: US Non-Farm Payrolls, September. Consensus +100,000, previous +162,000. Unemployment rate consensus 4.2%, previous 4.1%; average hourly earnings year-on-year consensus 3.1%, unchanged.
The two that matter most
Wednesday’s core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to show prices rising 0.3% on the month in August, a touch faster than the previous 0.2%, with the annual rate ticking up to 3.4% from 3.3%. Coming so soon after the Fed’s own rate increase to 3.75-4.00%, a hotter-than-expected print would support the case that officials were right to lean hawkish, and would push back against any argument that the central bank is close to done tightening.
A softer reading, by contrast, would feed the argument the week’s run of Fed speakers is likely to make: that policy is now tight enough to bring inflation down without further increases. Thursday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, forecast at 54.8 against 54.6 previously, is the other pre-positioning signal ahead of the jobs number: a reading further above the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction would reinforce the same hawkish-leaning message.
Friday’s non-farm payrolls report is the week’s biggest single catalyst and the one with the clearest read-through to sterling and UK gilts. Consensus looks for employment growth of 100,000 in September, down sharply from 162,000 the month before, which would be the slowest pace of hiring since the pandemic, with the unemployment rate expected to edge up to 4.2% from 4.1%.
A miss on that scale, arriving so soon after a Fed rate rise rather than a cut, would raise immediate questions about how much further tightening the labour market can absorb, and it is the clearest test this week for GBP/USD and gilt yields. A beat, conversely, would harden the case that the Fed’s September move was justified and give the string of Fed speakers across Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday a stronger hand when they defend the decision.
Earnings
Nike (NYSE: NKE), the sportswear group, reports fiscal first-quarter results on Thursday after the US market close, with consensus looking for earnings per share of $0.44. No other watchlist companies are scheduled to report this week, and the release lands in the same 24 hours as Thursday’s ISM data and the week’s heaviest run of central-bank speeches, making it a secondary rather than primary catalyst for the week as a whole.
Where rates stand going in
The Federal Reserve’s target range moved up to 3.75-4.00% in mid-September, from 3.50-3.75% previously. The European Central Bank’s deposit facility rate rose to 2.50% over the same period, from 2.25%, with its main refinancing rate moving to 2.65% and its marginal lending rate to 2.90%. The Bank of England’s Bank Rate has held at 3.75% since early August, with no change through to this week.
Last time
The previous non-farm payrolls report showed employment growth of 162,000, well above the 100,000 now expected for September. That slowdown in the consensus figure itself, arriving in a month when the Fed still opted to raise rates rather than cut them, is what gives Friday’s release its edge: a weak print would sit awkwardly against a central bank that has only just tightened policy, while a stronger one would suggest the labour market can withstand it.
Close
The next fixed point on the calendar beyond this week is Nike’s fiscal first-quarter earnings call, due after Thursday’s close, with the ISM survey and Friday’s payrolls data likely to have set the tone for how markets read it by the time it lands.