General Electric’s stock (NYSE:GE) is trading back up near the $325 resistance level ahead of this morning’s earnings report, with a 1.88% gain pre-market putting the stock at $324.50. There is plenty riding on the print, after a 69% rally over the past 12 months.
The quarter provides a test of whether services strength and LEAP delivery improvements can sustain the earnings trajectory that drove three consecutive guidance raises in 2025.
Consensus sits at $1.43 EPS on $11.2billion in revenue, representing 27.7% and 13.33% year-over-year growth respectively. The company’s full-year adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $6.10 implies fourth-quarter results near the high end of current estimates, creating limited room for disappointment.
$337.8B
42.6
$1.47
$10.41B
The setup reflects a year in which GE repeatedly outperformed expectations, with adjusted EPS beats averaging 19% across the first three quarters of 2025. Management raised full-year guidance twice, from an initial $5.10-$5.45 range to $6.00-$6.20, as supply-chain constraints eased and commercial aftermarket demand proved more durable than anticipated.
The result will determine whether GE can articulate a credible path to sustaining double-digit earnings growth in 2026 without relying on further supply-chain tailwinds. Investors will scrutinize 2026 guidance for evidence that services pricing, LEAP volume ramps, and operating leverage can offset known headwinds from GE9X program costs and potential normalization in aftermarket utilization rates.
The options market prices a 4.2% expected move, below the 5.1% average historical reaction, suggesting muted volatility expectations despite the stock’s recent momentum loss relative to peers.
GE headquarters showcases the company’s transformation into a focused leader
Consensus Estimates
| Metric | Consensus Est. | Range | Prior Guidance | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (Adjusted) | $1.47 | $1.39 – $1.53 | $6.00 – $6.20 (FY25) | +27.7% |
| Revenue | $10.41B | $10.23B – $10.67B | Not specified | +16.4% |
| Operating Margin | 20.6% | Not specified | Not specified | Expansion expected |
Analysts Covering: 13 (EPS), 10 (Revenue)
Estimate Revisions (30d): 8 up / 0 down
Consensus expectations embed continued momentum from commercial services and engine deliveries. The $1.47 EPS estimate represents a $0.32 increase from the prior-year quarter, driven by higher LEAP volumes and sustained aftermarket demand. Estimate revisions have moved uniformly higher over the past 30 days, with eight upward adjustments and no downgrades, reflecting confidence that fourth-quarter execution will support the high end of management’s full-year $6.00-$6.20 guidance range.
The revenue estimate of $10.41B sits 16.4% above year-ago levels, consistent with the company’s disclosed improvements in supplier throughput and engine delivery capacity. The estimate range spans $440M, suggesting analysts see limited variability in top-line outcomes. The more significant uncertainty centers on margin performance and whether services mix can offset any program-cost pressures from widebody engine investments, particularly GE9X timing.
Management Guidance and Commentary
“We raised our full-year adjusted EPS outlook to $6.00-$6.20, signaling that improving output and commercial-services strength were not transitory.”
Management’s October guidance raise to $6.00-$6.20 adjusted EPS (from $5.60-$5.80) reflected confidence that supply-chain improvements and aftermarket demand would sustain through year-end. The company cited outsized growth in commercial services, improved supplier availability, and strong backlog support as drivers. The guidance midpoint of $6.10 implies fourth-quarter adjusted EPS near $1.44, slightly below the current $1.47 consensus, creating a modest setup for a beat if execution tracks the first three quarters of 2025.
The company’s third-quarter commentary emphasized that services demand remained robust while delivery constraints continued to ease. GE quantified its remaining performance obligation at $176.3B as of September 30, 2025, providing visibility into future revenue streams. Management also acknowledged tariff-related cost pressures but indicated mitigation through pricing actions and cost controls, a dynamic that will require validation in fourth-quarter results and 2026 guidance.
The gap between consensus and the implied guidance midpoint is narrow, approximately 2%, which limits the magnitude of a potential upside surprise on reported numbers alone. The stock’s reaction will likely hinge more on 2026 guidance tone than on fourth-quarter results. If management frames 2026 as another year of double-digit earnings growth supported by services resilience and delivery ramps, the market will likely reward the print. Conversely, any suggestion that 2025’s estimate lift represented a catch-up rather than a sustainable trajectory could pressure the stock despite a fourth-quarter beat.
Analyst Price Targets & Ratings
Wall Street maintains a bullish stance with 77% of analysts rating shares Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus target of $354.82 implies 11.4% upside, though this represents a more modest premium than the stock commanded earlier in 2025 when estimates were rising more aggressively.
Sector & Peer Comparison
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | P/E | Fwd P/E | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GE
⭐ Focus |
GE | $337.8B | 42.6 | 44.7 | 18.3% |
|
RTX Corporation
|
RTX | $162.4B | 35.2 | 21.8 | 8.9% |
|
Honeywell International
|
HON | $142.7B | 26.4 | 22.1 | 16.2% |
|
Lockheed Martin
|
LMT | $118.3B | 18.9 | 17.2 | 11.4% |
|
Northrop Grumman
|
NOC | $71.2B | 16.8 | 15.9 | 9.7% |
|
General Dynamics
|
GD | $68.9B | 20.3 | 18.4 | 10.1% |
GE trades at a 21% premium to RTX on trailing P/E and a 105% premium on forward P/E, reflecting the market’s assessment that GE’s commercial-focused business model offers superior growth visibility. The company’s 18.3% profit margin exceeds most defense-oriented peers, consistent with the high-margin economics of commercial aftermarket services. GE’s forward P/E of 44.7 embeds expectations for sustained earnings growth, a multiple that requires validation through continued execution and 2026 guidance that supports double-digit profit expansion.
The valuation premium is justified by GE’s exposure to commercial aviation recovery and its LEAP engine franchise, which provides both near-term delivery revenue and long-term aftermarket streams. However, the premium also creates vulnerability if services demand normalizes or if program costs rise faster than anticipated. Peers with more diversified defense exposure trade at lower multiples but also face less cyclical revenue streams, a trade-off that becomes relevant if commercial aviation demand shows signs of plateauing.
GE Aviation’s modern facilities reflect the company’s focus on advanced technology and engine manufacturing capabilities.
Earnings Track Record
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Est. | Result | Surprise % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.66 | $1.42 | Beat | +16.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.66 | $1.43 | Beat | +16.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.49 | $1.27 | Beat | +17.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.32 | $1.04 | Beat | +26.9% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.15 | $1.13 | Beat | +1.8% |
| Q2 2024 | $1.20 | $0.99 | Beat | +21.2% |
| Q1 2024 | $0.82 | $0.66 | Beat | +24.2% |
| Q4 2023 | $1.03 | $0.91 | Beat | +13.2% |
GE has delivered 18 consecutive quarterly beats over the past five years, a perfect execution record that establishes high credibility with investors. The average surprise of 34.0% reflects consistent underestimation by analysts, though the magnitude of beats has moderated in recent quarters as estimates have adjusted higher. The three most recent quarters show surprises in the 16-17% range, down from the 20-47% surprises common in 2023 and early 2024, suggesting consensus is converging toward the company’s true earnings power.
The pattern of consecutive beats followed by guidance raises indicates management has maintained conservative initial outlooks and allowed results to drive estimate revisions upward. This approach has supported the stock’s sustained advance but also means future beats may generate smaller reactions as the market anticipates continued outperformance. The fourth-quarter 2024 result, which delivered a 26.9% surprise, set a high bar for the current quarter and established the template for 2025’s estimate trajectory.
Post-Earnings Price Movement History
| Date | Surprise | EPS vs Est. | Next Day Move | Price Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | +16.9% | $1.66 vs $1.42 | +2.5% | $293.63 to $300.88 |
| Jul 2025 | +16.1% | $1.66 vs $1.43 | -2.2% | $254.51 to $249.02 |
| Apr 2025 | +17.3% | $1.49 vs $1.27 | +2.0% | $199.88 to $203.79 |
| Jan 2025 | +26.9% | $1.32 vs $1.04 | +0.3% | $168.10 to $168.59 |
| Oct 2024 | +1.8% | $1.15 vs $1.13 | +0.5% | $185.38 to $186.30 |
GE historical post-earnings price reactions show modest average moves of 1.0%, with a median of 1.2%, suggesting the market typically digests results without dramatic volatility. The pattern reveals that beats alone do not guarantee positive reactions; the second-quarter 2025 result delivered a 16.1% EPS surprise but the stock declined 2.2% the following day, likely reflecting concerns about guidance or margin trajectory despite the headline beat.
The most recent quarter (Q3 2025) produced a 2.5% gain on a 16.9% surprise, consistent with the pattern that guidance raises drive reactions more than reported numbers. The fourth-quarter 2024 result, despite a 26.9% surprise, generated only a 0.3% next-day move, suggesting the market had already priced in strong execution. This dynamic implies that fourth-quarter 2025 results will need to be paired with confident 2026 commentary to generate meaningful upside, as the beat itself is largely anticipated given the company’s track record.
Expected Move & Implied Volatility
28.3%
42%
24.1%
The options market implies a 4.2% move in either direction, equivalent to a $13.38 range from the current $318.50 price. This expectation sits below the company’s 5.1% average historical post-earnings move, indicating options traders see limited potential for outsized reactions. The 28.3% implied volatility ranks in the 42nd percentile of the past year’s range, suggesting neither elevated uncertainty nor complacency. Current IV sits 420 basis points above 30-day historical volatility of 24.1%, a modest premium that reflects earnings-event risk without pricing extreme outcomes.
The subdued implied move aligns with the company’s recent pattern of modest post-earnings reactions despite consistent beats. It also reflects the market’s assessment that consensus estimates are well-calibrated after a year of upward revisions. The setup suggests that a standard beat-and-maintain scenario would likely produce a move within the expected range, while only a significant guidance surprise (either positive or negative) would generate movement beyond the $305-$332 bounds.
GE extensive manufacturing facilities support production of commercial and military jet engines, including the popular LEAP engine series.
Expert Predictions & What to Watch
Key Outlook: Bullish with Execution Dependency
The base case assumes GE delivers adjusted EPS near $1.50, modestly above the $1.47 consensus, consistent with the company’s pattern of 16-17% surprises in recent quarters. Revenue should track the $10.41B estimate, supported by continued LEAP deliveries and services demand. The critical variable is whether management frames 2026 as another year of double-digit profit growth or signals normalization. If GE provides 2026 adjusted EPS guidance in the $6.80-$7.20 range (implying 11-18% growth), the stock likely tests the $340-$350 range. If guidance suggests single-digit growth or highlights program-cost headwinds, the stock could retreat to $300-$310 despite a fourth-quarter beat.
The setup reflects a market that has priced in strong execution but remains uncertain about sustainability. The stock’s recent underperformance relative to peers suggests some investors are taking profits after the 101% advance, creating potential for upside if 2026 guidance exceeds expectations. Conversely, the elevated valuation multiple leaves limited room for disappointment; any indication that services growth is plateauing or that GE9X costs will pressure margins could trigger a reassessment of the premium valuation.
Key Metrics to Watch
The fourth-quarter result will be evaluated primarily through the lens of 2026 guidance and the sustainability of the earnings trajectory that drove three consecutive raises in 2025. Investors will scrutinize whether services revenue growth remains in the low-teens range, whether LEAP deliveries show continued improvement, and whether management can articulate a path to margin expansion that offsets known program-cost headwinds. The stock’s reaction will likely be binary: confident 2026 guidance supporting double-digit earnings growth drives the stock toward $350-$370, while cautious commentary or single-digit growth expectations could trigger a 10-15% pullback as the market reprices the sustainability of the current valuation multiple.
