$87.0B
42.4
$0.30
$5.55B
Freeport-McMoRan reports fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 22 before market open, with the quarter providing the first full accounting of the Grasberg mine disruption following the September 8 mud rush incident that suspended Indonesia operations. Consensus sits at $0.30 EPS on $5.55B revenue, down 9.7% and 11.7% year-over-year respectively, with the Street modeling minimal contribution from Grasberg after management guided to 635 million pounds copper sales and 60,000 ounces gold for the quarter.
The setup reflects a market that has already priced operational disruption but remains uncertain about cost structure and recovery timing. Consensus EPS has been revised 23% higher over the past 30 days, suggesting analysts have become more optimistic about either realized pricing or cost containment. Copper averaged above $5 per pound for most of Q4 and gained 18% during the period, with current prices near $6 supporting a realized price estimate of $4.75 per pound, up 14.5% year-over-year.
The question is whether that pricing tailwind can offset the combination of 35% lower sequential volumes and the cost deleverage that typically accompanies production disruptions. The valuation context complicates the risk-reward. At 42.4x trailing earnings and a market cap near $87B, FCX trades at a premium to historical norms despite the Indonesia disruption.
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Consensus Estimates
| Metric | Consensus Est. | Range | Prior Guidance | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (Adjusted) | $0.30 | $0.33 – $0.54 | Not provided | -9.7% |
| Revenue | $5.55B | $5.05B – $5.77B | Not provided | -11.7% |
| Copper Sales Volume | 635M lbs | N/A | ~635M lbs | -36% |
| Gold Sales Volume | 60K oz | N/A | ~60K oz | Significant decline |
Analysts Covering: 13 (EPS), 10 (Revenue)
Estimate Revisions (30d): 1 up / 0 down
Consensus expectations reflect full capitulation to the Grasberg disruption. The $0.30 EPS estimate sits at the low end of the $0.33-$0.54 range, indicating most analysts have anchored to management’s derisked volume framework rather than modeling upside scenarios. The estimate revision pattern is notable: three upward revisions in the past seven days with no downward movement, indicating the Street has been raising rather than lowering expectations as the report approaches.
Management Guidance & Commentary
“The company expects fourth-quarter 2025 consolidated sales of approximately 635 million pounds of copper and approximately 60,000 ounces of gold.”
Management’s Q3 guidance effectively set a floor for Q4 expectations, with the 635 million pound copper figure representing a dramatic step-down from the 974 million pounds sold in Q3. The guidance was issued in the context of the September 8 Grasberg incident, which suspended operations at FCX’s most profitable asset. The company did not provide explicit EPS or revenue guidance for Q4, instead focusing on volume metrics that would allow investors to model profitability based on their own commodity price and cost assumptions.
“Unit net cash costs are expected to be higher in the fourth quarter primarily reflecting lower sales volumes.”
The cost commentary from Q3 established that unit costs would rise materially in Q4 due to fixed cost deleverage on lower volumes. FCX’s unit net cash cost per pound of copper jumped to $1.40 in Q3 from $1.13 in Q2, a 24% sequential increase. The Q4 volume decline of 35% from Q3 levels suggests further cost pressure unless the company took aggressive actions to reduce fixed costs.
Analyst Price Targets & Ratings
Wall Street maintains a cautiously optimistic stance, with 65% of analysts rating shares a Buy or Strong Buy. However, the consensus target of $57.70 implies 4.8% downside from current levels, reflecting concerns about the recovery timeline and elevated valuation multiples. The mixed sentiment suggests analysts see long-term value but question near-term execution.
Sector & Peer Comparison
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | P/E | Fwd P/E | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Freeport-McMoRan
⭐ Focus |
FCX | $87.0B | 42.4 | 24.1 | 8.0% |
|
BHP Group
|
BHP | $124.5B | 12.8 | 11.2 | 22.3% |
|
Rio Tinto
|
RIO | $95.2B | 9.1 | 8.9 | 28.1% |
|
Southern Copper
|
SCCO | $82.4B | 22.6 | 18.3 | 42.7% |
|
Teck Resources
|
TECK | $18.9B | 15.2 | 13.8 | 15.4% |
FCX trades at a substantial premium to diversified miners BHP and Rio Tinto on a trailing P/E basis, reflecting the market’s willingness to pay for copper exposure despite near-term operational disruption. The 42.4x trailing multiple compares to BHP’s 12.8x and Rio’s 9.1x, a gap that can only be justified by expectations for materially higher earnings growth as Grasberg recovers.
Earnings Track Record
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Est. | Result | Surprise % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.50 | $0.41 | Beat | +22.0% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.54 | $0.44 | Beat | +22.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.24 | $0.24 | Met | 0.0% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.31 | $0.22 | Beat | +40.9% |
| Q3 2024 | $0.38 | $0.37 | Beat | +2.7% |
| Q2 2024 | $0.46 | $0.38 | Beat | +21.1% |
FCX has delivered consistent earnings beats over the past two years, exceeding consensus in nine of the last ten quarters with an average surprise of 17.1% over that period. The pattern reflects the Street’s tendency to model conservative operational assumptions and realized pricing, allowing FCX to outperform when execution is clean and commodity prices cooperate.
Post-Earnings Price Movement History
| Date | Surprise | EPS vs Est. | Next Day Move | Price Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | +22.0% | $0.50 vs $0.41 | +5.3% | $37.12 to $39.09 |
| Q2 2025 | +22.7% | $0.54 vs $0.44 | +0.4% | $43.87 to $44.05 |
| Q1 2025 | Met | $0.24 vs $0.24 | -0.8% | $38.42 to $38.13 |
| Q4 2024 | +40.9% | $0.31 vs $0.22 | -0.7% | $38.16 to $37.88 |
The post-earnings price movement history reveals a weak correlation between earnings beats and next-day stock performance. Even 40% beats can produce negative reactions when guidance disappoints. The market appears to treat FCX’s earnings beats as baseline expectations rather than positive surprises, focusing instead on forward guidance and operational commentary.
Expected Move & Implied Volatility
35-40%
78%
45%
The options market is bracing for a significant move, pricing in a 6.6% swing substantially above the +0.6% average historical move. This elevated implied volatility reflects uncertainty not about the Q4 result itself, which management effectively pre-announced through volume guidance, but about forward commentary on recovery timing and 2026 earnings power.
Expert Predictions & What to Watch
Key Outlook: Guidance Will Drive the Trade
The setup favors a modest earnings beat based on FCX’s 77.8% historical beat rate, the 23% upward revision to consensus over the past 30 days, and copper pricing that averaged above $5 per pound during Q4. However, a beat alone will not drive a sustained positive reaction based on historical patterns.
Key Metrics to Watch
The copper sales volume figure is the most straightforward test of operational execution. Management guided to approximately 635 million pounds, and any material variance signals a change in the Grasberg situation. The realized copper pricing determines revenue and earnings upside potential, while unit net cash costs are the key profitability metric given the volume decline.
Most importantly, the Grasberg restart timeline and 2026 volume guidance will determine whether the market can confidently model earnings recovery expectations. Any extension of the mid-2026 restart timeline or commentary suggesting costs will remain elevated through the recovery period would likely produce a negative reaction despite a Q4 beat.
