mwb Remains a Buyer as TUI Tightens FY26 Profit Guidance and Demand Holds Up

TUI (ETR: TUI1) shares edged higher Tuesday after the travel operator narrowed its full-year profit guidance, pointing to resilient demand despite geopolitical headwinds.

The German group said it now expects fiscal 2026 underlying EBIT of €1.2 billion to €1.3 billion at constant currency, tightening a prior range of €1.1 billion to €1.4 billion, though below the €1,413 million reported in fiscal 2025. Its revenue guidance remains suspended.

TUI, which reports full results on Dec. 9, said it was “on track to deliver robust FY26 underlying EBIT,” helped by strong fourth-quarter demand and improved booking momentum.

Its Holiday Experiences division, spanning hotels and cruises, remains the growth engine, with capacity expansion and higher rates offsetting the impact of a Jamaica hurricane and Middle East disruption.

Its Markets + Airline business faces softer volumes in the UK and Germany amid a later-booking trend, prompting a 5% cut to own-risk capacity, though average selling prices are holding up. For winter 2026/27, booked revenue is down 7% so far, but TUI said momentum has improved in recent weeks.

The shares rose 0.1%, though they remain down 27.7% this year.

mwb Research analyst Oliver Wojahn reiterated a buy rating and €13.50 price target on the stock, implying about 107% upside from €6.53.

The analyst told investors in a note that the tightened guidance “limits downside” by mitigating geopolitical risks, and that TUI’s proactive capacity management “de-risks full-year operating earnings.”

With the valuation still reflecting heavy geopolitical and macro discounting, he said the risk-reward remains favourable.