Greggs Lifts 2026 Outlook as Sales Quicken, but Four Manufacturing Sites Face Closure

Greggs (LON: GRG), the UK bakery and food-on-the-go chain, said sales in its company-managed shops rose 3.4% in the 13 weeks to Saturday and that it now expects a modestly improved outcome for 2026. The same statement launched a consultation on closing four manufacturing sites.

The update came at 7am today, before the London open. The shares closed yesterday at 1,875p, up from 1,848p the session before and in the upper part of a three-month closing range that runs from 1,510p on the 8th of July to 2,032p on the 30th of July.

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Like-for-like sales, which strip out the effect of new openings, rose 3.4% in company-managed shops, the ones Greggs owns and runs rather than franchises. The figure for the first half was 2.1%. Total sales rose 7.7% in the quarter. Greggs credited menu launches, including iced drinks and a Steak & Stilton Bake, and more settled weather in August and September. On the outlook it said:

Improved trading performance in recent months and continued strong cost control now leads us to expect a modestly improved outcome for 2026.

Greggs company statement

Greggs gave no profit figure or range. Its previous guidance was reportedly for underlying pre-tax profit at a similar level to last year’s £172m, so the upgrade is unquantified.

The consultation covers proposals that could make about 740 roles redundant over roughly two and a half years, and any closures are subject to its outcome. The cash cost is about £60m, against an annual pre-tax cash saving of about £20m across 2028 and 2029.

The shares had already rallied hard on the interim results, rising from 1,690p to 2,002p on the 29th of July. They then fell to a September low close of 1,731p on the 11th of September before recovering, so the bar going into today was high.

Greggs also warned of signs of greater inflationary pressures in 2027, and said new distribution centres at Derby and Kettering will add costs that year before they contribute to profitable growth. Derby begins frozen storage and picking in the fourth quarter of 2026.