Novo Nordisk (NVO) shares tumbled as much as 7% in Copenhagen on Monday after the drugmaker’s Capital Markets Day in London left investors unconvinced it has a credible near-term growth plan beyond Wegovy and Ozempic. The event was meant to reassure holders the company can grow once its semaglutide patent protection lapses in the early 2030s.
The stock was still down 5.4% by 11:30am in London, extending a year of underperformance against rival Eli Lilly. Novo shares have fallen 27% over the trailing 12 months, while Lilly, which sells the competing GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, has gained 52% over the same period.
The company used the event to set targets running out to 2030 and 2035: more than five new “multi-blockbuster” drug launches by 2030, and over 150 billion Danish kroner (roughly $23bn) in risk-adjusted pipeline sales by 2035. Revenue growth for 2026-2030, it said, would run “in line with industry peers”, language analysts read as an admission that growth will slow from the pace shareholders have grown used to.
Chief executive Mike Doustdar called the looming loss of US patent protection on semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic, the ‘elephant in the room’, a particular threat given the US accounts for more than half of Novo’s sales, with exclusivity there expiring in 2032. Novo did offer one bright spot: Phase 3 data showing its investigational CagriSema treatment produced greater weight loss than Lilly’s tirzepatide in one head-to-head trial and far outperformed placebo in another, with an FDA decision expected in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Jacob Pedersen, an analyst at Middelfart Sparekasse, said the targets did not match what the market had been hoping for. Per Hansen, savings economist at Nordnet, put it more bluntly:
Investors hoped for a project ‘miracle’ that could turn the momentum around short term. For obvious reasons that miracle does not exist.
Per Hansen, Nordnet
With 2026 guidance already pointing to flat-to-lower adjusted sales and operating profit, CagriSema’s promise was not enough to offset Monday’s disappointment, leaving investors watching the FDA’s fourth-quarter decision for the next real catalyst.