Delta Cuts 2026 Profit Outlook as Fuel Costs Rise

Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL), the Atlanta-based US network airline, missed third-quarter profit forecasts today and cut its 2026 earnings guidance to $5.10-$5.60 a share from $6.50-$7.50. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.72 fell short of the $1.75 LSEG consensus, its first miss in two years.

In a delayed quote at 2.30pm UK time, as the US session opened, the shares were at $79.75, down 2.91% from yesterday’s close of $82.14. Since the start of July, daily closes have ranged from $76.38 to $93.14.

Fuel is the cause. Adjusted fuel expense rose 62% to $4.14bn as the adjusted price climbed 60% to $3.61 a gallon, and Delta said it absorbed more than $500m above its July guidance. The airline puts the full-year fuel increase at $6bn and now expects free cash flow of about $2.5bn, down from $3bn-$4bn.

Revenue held up better than profit. Adjusted revenue rose 16% to $17.59bn, just under the $17.67bn LSEG consensus, with premium cabin revenue up 18%. But adjusted operating margin fell to 9.4% from 11.1% a year earlier. Adjusted EPS, which strips out one-off items, was $0.53 below the midpoint of Delta’s July guide, on the desk’s arithmetic.

Chief executive Ed Bastian framed the quarter around demand:

Demand remains strong, supported by consumers’ growing preference for experiences and travel, with air travel continuing to be one of the best values in the consumer economy.

Ed Bastian, Delta Air Lines

The guidance cut is large against Delta’s own July range: by the desk’s arithmetic the midpoint falls 23.6% to $5.35 from $7.00. Against analysts it is modest, as the Bloomberg full-year consensus was already $5.44.

For the fourth quarter Delta guides adjusted EPS of $1.15-$1.65 on fuel of about $4.25 a gallon, with revenue up about 20%. The midpoint of $1.40 sits below Bloomberg’s $1.48. Alaska reports on the 20th of October.