Ryanair Trims FY27 Traffic Target as Jet Fuel Nears $140

Ryanair Holdings (NASDAQ: RYAAY), Europe’s largest budget airline, cut its full-year traffic guidance for the year to March 2027 from 216 million to 214 million passengers, saying it would pull back winter flying to limit its exposure to costly jet fuel.

Ryanair’s US-listed shares closed Tuesday’s session at $53.82, down 2.8% from the previous close of $55.37 and closer to the 52-week low of $52.75 than the high of $73.21. The guidance cut was announced this morning, so it is not yet reflected in the US share price.

The cut came despite Ryanair carrying 22.2 million passengers in August, up 6% year-on-year, with its load factor, the share of seats filled, steady at 96%. Rolling 12-month traffic rose 5% to 214.4 million. Ryanair said jet fuel was trading near $140 a barrel at the time of the announcement, well above the levels it has locked in through hedging, and that flying its unhedged winter fuel at that price was uneconomic, prompting it to scale back capacity between November and March.

Ryanair has around 80% of its FY27 fuel needs hedged near $67 a barrel, with a further 15% of next year’s requirement hedged at $85 a barrel, leaving only a small unhedged slice exposed to the current spot price. The airline said the winter capacity cut should narrow winter losses by €70m to €100m, and expects winter traffic to be broadly flat year-on-year as a result.

Ryanair also warned that if oil prices stay elevated, rivals with weaker fuel hedges could be forced to raise short-haul fares or cut their own capacity, a read-through it is flagging for the wider European sector. The scale of its hedge book means Ryanair is better placed than many competitors to absorb the fuel spike, leaving less-hedged rivals more exposed to $140 oil this winter.