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ZIM Lifts 2026 Profit Guidance Sharply, but Hapag-Lloyd Deal Risk Still Caps Shares

ZIM raised its 2026 profit guidance after the US close today, lifting the midpoint of adjusted EBITDA by 30%, yet the shares remain pinned well below Hapag-Lloyd's $35 cash offer by Israeli approval risk.

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (NYSE: ZIM), the Israel-founded container shipping line, raised its 2026 profit guidance after the US close today. The midpoint of adjusted EBITDA rises 30% and adjusted EBIT 72%, the second guidance update in about seven weeks.

The regular session closed at $29.20, up 0.93% from yesterday’s $28.93, so that move came before the news. Tomorrow is the first full session to reflect the guidance. The shares are up about 15.7% since the 1st of July.

ZIM now expects adjusted EBITDA of $2.7bn-$3.0bn and adjusted EBIT of $1.4bn-$1.7bn for the full year. It attributed the raise to continued strong demand and favourable momentum in freight rates, the prices charged to move containers. The release gave no figures on rates, volumes or trade lanes, and no net income guidance.

The previous guidance, issued on the 19th of August, put the midpoints at $2.2bn for adjusted EBITDA, core operating profit before interest, tax, depreciation and one-offs, and $0.9bn for adjusted EBIT, which is struck after depreciation. The new midpoints are $2.85bn and $1.55bn.

Metric Previous (19 Aug) New (6 Oct) Midpoint change
Adjusted EBITDA $2.0bn-$2.4bn $2.7bn-$3.0bn +30%
Adjusted EBIT $700m-$1.1bn $1.4bn-$1.7bn +72%

Adjusted EBIT is rising faster than adjusted EBITDA, as the company’s own midpoint calculations show.

Line chart of ZIM daily closing share price from July to October 2026 against the $35 Hapag-Lloyd offer
ZIM daily closes, 1 July to 6 October 2026, against Hapag-Lloyd’s $35 offer

The stronger earnings have not lifted the shares towards the offer. At $29.20 they sit about 17% below the $35 in cash that German carrier Hapag-Lloyd agreed in February to pay, roughly $4.2bn in all. ZIM shareholders have approved it, but closing needs Israeli approvals, including consent under the golden share, a state veto over changes of control.

In a filing on the 30th of September, ZIM said Israel’s Government Companies Authority had stopped reviewing the original structure and wanted a new, fully detailed proposal. That reset keeps the gap wide.

For traders, the higher guidance matters mostly if the deal fails or is delayed. ZIM’s release lists the pending transaction, the Israel/US-Iran conflict and Red Sea and Hormuz risks among its risk factors. Israeli regulatory news is the swing factor.

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