JD.com’s Stock (NASDAQ:JD) Gains A New Bull Into Earnings: Growth Outlook Promising

JD.com (JD) is preparing its Q2 earnings release on Thursday before market open, with analysts expecting the firm to report earnings of RMB 3.56 per share ($0.50) for the quarter, a significant drop from RMB 9.36 EPS in the same period last year, reflecting potential margin pressures in the prior year.

However, the outlook for revenue remains strong, with projections of RMB 335.64 billion ($46.69B), representing a 15.2% year-over-year increase from RMB 291.4 billion. This would represent solid top-line growth driven by consumer demand and e-commerce expansion, even as profitability softens.

Leading in, JD's stock has seen a resumption of coverage at Citi, with a lofty price target of $42, and a bullish Buy rating. The firm's growth outlook heading into earnings was flagged as a key reason for the target, as Citi foresee ~33% in upside from the current price action on JD.

Over the past year, JD.com's stock has exhibited considerable volatility. A notable surge occurred in the lead-up to March 2025, with the stock price climbing approximately 102%.

However, the current price indicates a retracement from those highs, suggesting that the market is reassessing JD.com's prospects in light of trade tensions, and tariffs.

JD.com's recent financial performance has been robust. In Q1 2025, the company reported a 15.8% year-over-year increase in total revenue, reaching RMB 301.08 billion (approximately $41.82 billion), surpassing analysts' expectations.

Net income attributable to shareholders also saw a significant rise, increasing to RMB 10.9 billion from RMB 7.1 billion in the same period the previous year. This strong performance led to a 3.3% increase in JD.com's U.S.-listed shares, reaching $37.25, demonstrating the market's sensitivity to positive earnings news.

Beyond its core e-commerce business, JD.com has been actively diversifying its operations. The launch of JD Takeaway, its food delivery service, has shown promising growth, quickly approaching 20 million daily orders. This expansion highlights JD.com's ability to leverage its existing infrastructure and customer base to enter new markets.

However, this rapid expansion has also attracted regulatory scrutiny. In July 2025, Chinese regulators summoned JD.com, along with other major food delivery platforms, to address concerns over competitive practices. The authorities emphasized the need for fair competition and adherence to e-commerce and competition laws to protect consumer and worker rights. This regulatory oversight adds an element of uncertainty to JD.com's future growth prospects.

While the prevailing sentiment appears cautiously optimistic, the Chinese economy faces several challenges, including potential slowdowns in consumer spending and increasing competition in the e-commerce sector.

Analysts have been actively tweaking their EPS outlooks ahead of earnings, one boosting estimates and 12 cutting them in the month leading in. Despite this, Citi remain optimistic, and the broader street average PT of $45.81 remains a long way to the upside if pressures can abate.