NIO Price Target Raised Ahead of Earnings: (NYSE:NIO) Stock Testing Resistance

NIO's stock (NYSE: NIO) is currently a focal point for traders, with market sentiment influenced by upcoming Q2 2025 earnings, expansion efforts, and new vehicle models. The stock's ability to hold the $5 mark, and break $5.20 could provide the opportunity for a further leg higher, with NIO having added 11.43% YTD, and currently trading at $5.22, up 2.96% in the pre-market.

A welcome price target upgrade from Morgan Stanley analyst Tim Hsiao in yesterday's session has added to the bull thesis, with 2026/27 volume estimates remaining unchanged with Onvo L90 orders expected to deliver a recovery in deliveries. The analyst increased NIO's price target to $6.50 (from $5.90) and kept an Overweight rating on the stock.

Looking at operations, NIO's Q2 2025 delivery projections estimate between 72,000 and 75,000 vehicles, indicating a growth of 25.5% to 30.7% compared to Q2 2024. Revenue forecasts range from RMB19,513 million to RMB20,068 million, representing an 11.8% to 15.0% increase year-over-year.

These projections are supported by the launch of upgraded models like the EC6, ES6, ET5, and ET5T, with deliveries commencing in late May. The company expects these models will contribute to increased deliveries in June and throughout the second quarter.

Expanding its market presence, NIO introduced the Onvo brand with the L60 SUV, priced at 219,900 yuan ($30,476), positioning it competitively against Tesla's Model Y in China. Deliveries for the Onvo L60 commenced in September 2024. NIO plans to launch one new model annually under the Onvo brand, aiming for profitability as monthly sales reach 20,000 units. The ET9, NIO's flagship smart executive sedan, quickly sold out its initial run, featuring the company's self-developed autonomous driving chip and advanced suspension.

NIO is also investing heavily in battery-swapping infrastructure, with the goal of generating $10 billion annually from these services. Partnerships with other Chinese EV makers are aimed at expanding access to NIO's battery-swapping network.

Analysts have set an average target price of $4.95 for NIO, suggesting a potential downside from here to the consensus, although the high bar of $8.11, along with that of Morgan Stanley, reflects a far more bullish view.

The market will be closely watching NIO's ability to meet its delivery targets and enhance profitability into the next set of financials, as these factors will significantly influence its future market performance. The introduction of new models and expansion into new markets are seen as strategic initiatives that could bolster investor confidence, but execution remains key.