Coursera (COUR) Earnings Preview – Stock Mixed Leading In

Markets are bracing for Coursera Inc.'s (NYSE: COUR) third-quarter 2025 earnings report, due out after market close today. The online education giant faces a critical juncture as it seeks to demonstrate sustained growth amidst a dynamic and increasingly competitive landscape. Recent trading activity reflects caution; the stock is down 12.18% in the last month, suggesting uncertainty ahead of the earnings release, although a 6% gain in the past five trading sessions indicates some hesitancy in direction.

Analysts project that Coursera will post earnings per share (EPS) of $0.08, down slightly from $0.10 in the same quarter last year, indicating a modest decline in profitability. Revenue is expected to reach $190.32 million, representing an estimated 8.08% year-over-year increase.

Coursera's performance in the first half of 2025 has been encouraging. The company handily beat EPS and revenue estimates in both Q1 and Q2. In the second quarter, Coursera reported EPS of $0.12, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.09, and revenue of $187.1 million, surpassing the expected $180.56 million. This represented a 10% year-over-year increase. The company subsequently raised its full-year revenue guidance to between $738 million and $746 million, signaling an anticipated 6-7% growth rate.

Analysts will be closely scrutinizing several key metrics in today's report. Revenue growth is paramount; the company's guidance for Q3 revenue sits between $188 million and $192 million. The market will react favorably to figures exceeding this range, while any shortfall could trigger a sell-off, reminiscent of the October 2024 stock dip following disappointing revenue forecasts.

Beyond revenue, analysts will be looking at trends in subscriber growth, course completion rates, and the performance of Coursera's enterprise segment, which caters to businesses and organizations seeking to upskill their workforce. Margins will also be under scrutiny. In Q2, gross profit rose 13% to $105 million, and net income reached $19 million, representing 10.3% of revenue. Maintaining or improving these profitability metrics will be crucial for bolstering market confidence.

Coursera has been actively pursuing strategic initiatives to expand its reach and enhance its offerings. The recent partnership with OpenAI to integrate Coursera courses directly into ChatGPT holds significant potential. By embedding educational content within AI-driven conversations, Coursera aims to make learning more accessible and engaging for a wider audience. The early adoption rates and impact of this integration will be a key area of interest.

While the market generally focuses on subscriber growth and revenue figures, perhaps Coursera's true value lies in its vast library of educational content and its brand recognition. In a world increasingly saturated with information, curation and quality become paramount. Coursera, with its partnerships with leading universities and institutions, offers a stamp of credibility that many competitors lack.

Even if subscriber growth plateaus, Coursera could potentially leverage its content library through licensing agreements, partnerships with other platforms, or even the development of its own learning management system for enterprises. This “content is king” strategy could unlock a new revenue stream and insulate Coursera from the vagaries of the subscription market. One could argue the market is too focused on short-term subscriber metrics and overlooking the long-term asset value of Coursera's content and brand.