Pfizer Earnings Preview: $25 Level Proving a Tough Hold For PFE

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) finds itself at a critical juncture as it prepares to release its Q3 2025 earnings report tomorrow. The pharmaceutical giant's stock is currently down 6.7% in the last month, as a series of strategic maneuvers and competitive challenges are shaping Pfizer's trajectory, making this earnings release particularly significant.

Analysts estimate earnings per share (EPS) of $0.64 for the quarter, a 39.6% year-over-year decrease. This projected decline reflects several factors, including the anticipated impact of patent expirations on key drugs and the ongoing integration of recent acquisitions.

However, it is important to consider that in Q2 2025, Pfizer reported an EPS of $0.78, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.58 by a significant 34.5%. The question is whether Pfizer can repeat that performance, or if the negative headwinds will prove too strong.

The company's recent activity in the burgeoning obesity treatment market is a key area of focus. Pfizer's initial $4.9 billion acquisition of Metsera, a biotech firm with a promising pipeline of oral and injectable obesity treatments, was intended to bolster its position in this rapidly expanding sector. However, Novo Nordisk, a dominant player with drugs like Wegovy, has thrown a wrench into those plans with an unsolicited $9 billion bid for Metsera.

Pfizer has responded aggressively, filing a lawsuit to block Novo Nordisk's attempt, arguing it poses regulatory risks and stifles competition. The legal action underscores the high stakes involved, as the obesity drug market is projected to reach $150 billion by the early 2030s. This battle for Metsera highlights Pfizer's determination to secure a foothold in a market where it currently lags behind Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.

Beyond the Metsera saga, Pfizer has been actively reshaping its portfolio through strategic deals. The licensing agreement with 3SBio for the cancer drug candidate SSGJ-707, worth up to $6 billion, demonstrates Pfizer's commitment to expanding its oncology pipeline. Similarly, the sale of its stake in Haleon for $3.24 billion provides Pfizer with additional capital to deploy in other areas of strategic importance.

While the prevailing narrative focuses on Pfizer's struggles in the obesity market and the anticipated EPS decline, a contrarian perspective suggests that these challenges may be overblown. The market may be underestimating Pfizer's ability to innovate and adapt. The company has a proven track record of successfully navigating patent cliffs and launching new blockbuster drugs.

Furthermore, the Metsera acquisition, even if unsuccessful, could serve as a catalyst for Pfizer to pursue alternative strategies in the obesity market, potentially leading to even more innovative solutions.

The recent lawsuit to block Novo Nordisk's bid could be interpreted as a sign of Pfizer's unwavering commitment to competition and innovation, qualities that are often undervalued by the market in the short term. Perhaps, Pfizer is playing chess while others are playing checkers and has other companies in mind.

Pfizer's Q3 2025 earnings release will provide crucial insights into the company's performance and its strategic direction. Markets will be closely watching for updates on the Metsera acquisition, the progress of key pipeline programs, and the company's outlook for the remainder of the year.

The ability of Pfizer to navigate these challenges and capitalize on its opportunities will ultimately determine its long-term success in a rapidly evolving pharmaceutical landscape. The market consensus is not always the correct one, and Pfizer has the resources and experience to surprise on the upside.

The company's current price reflects a market grappling with uncertainty. The upcoming earnings call will be more than just a review of the past quarter; it will be a window into Pfizer's future.