AngloGold Ashanti Stock (AU) Outperforming Into Earnings: Can the Rally Continue?

AngloGold Ashanti PLC (NYSE: AU) is capturing market attention as it heads into its next earnings report, scheduled for release before market open this morning. In today's pre-market, the stock is trading at $74.29, having added 6.76% to kick-start the new trading week. This upward momentum reflects a broader trend of positive developments for the gold mining giant, but questions remain whether this trajectory is sustainable.

Analysts expect AU to post an EPS of $1.32, up significantly from approximately $0.56 a year ago, reflecting strong year-on-year earnings growth. On the revenue side, the consensus estimate is roughly $2.53 billion, indicating solid top-line momentum. Together, this suggests expectations of robust performance, likely driven by favorable gold market conditions and operational improvements.

AngloGold Ashanti has also been actively optimizing its portfolio. The June agreement to sell its interest in the Mineração Serra Grande (MSG) mine to Aura Minerals Inc. for $76 million is a strategic move. The MSG mine, while producing 80,000 ounces of gold in 2024, was considered a higher-cost and lower-production operation within AngloGold Ashanti’s portfolio. This divestment is expected to improve capital allocation and enhance operational efficiency, further bolstering market confidence.

Recent analyst upgrades further support the bullish sentiment. Zacks Research upgraded AU from a “Hold” to a “Strong-Buy” rating on October 31, 2025. Moreover, the average one-year price target was increased by a substantial 46.58% to $83.13 on October 29, 2025, signaling growing confidence in the company's future performance. The current consensus rating sits at “Moderate Buy”.

Adding to the positive narrative, AngloGold Ashanti increased its semi-annual dividend in August 2025 to $0.80 per share, up from $0.69. This dividend increase reflects the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders and further solidifies its appeal to income-seeking backers.

While the prevailing sentiment surrounding AngloGold Ashanti appears optimistic, a more cautious perspective is warranted. The significant increase in the average one-year price target to $83.13 might be overly enthusiastic and not fully account for potential risks. Gold prices, while currently elevated, are notoriously volatile and subject to sudden corrections.

Furthermore, the anticipated benefits from the MSG mine divestment might take longer to materialize than expected, and the company could face challenges in identifying and executing new growth opportunities. While the dividend increase is positive, it also reduces the capital available for reinvestment in operations and future expansion.

The current analyst consensus of “Moderate Buy” coupled with the 12-month price target of $49.60 presents a conflicting outlook, suggesting fundamental disagreements on the company's intrinsic value.

AngloGold Ashanti's stock performance in the coming months will likely hinge on its ability to maintain operational efficiency, manage production costs, and capitalize on favorable gold prices. The upcoming earnings report will provide critical insights into the company's financial health and strategic direction, which will ultimately determine whether the current rally can be sustained.