Eli Lilly Price Target Raised To $1,104, As Analyst Upgrades Stock (LLY)

Eli Lilly's stock (NYSE: LLY) is experiencing a surge in market confidence this morning following an analyst upgrade that underscores the company's promising position in the burgeoning obesity treatment market.

Leerink Partners revised its outlook on Eli Lilly, upgrading the stock to Outperform from Market Perform and significantly raising the price target to $1,104, a substantial increase from the previous $886.

The upgrade reflects Leerink's anticipation of multiple waves of adoption for obesity treatments, primarily fueled by expanded Medicare and Medicaid access expected by January 2027. This broader accessibility, coupled with Eli Lilly's pipeline of innovative drugs like orforglipron, retatrutide, and eloralintide, is projected to solidify the company's leadership in the field. The firm's projections now anticipate a 15% five-year revenue compound annual growth rate, up from the earlier estimate of 12%. This revision also led to an increase in the 2026-2030E EPS by 4-9% annually. The company's stock is up 18.8% year-to-date.

However, it's important to note the evolving analyst sentiment surrounding Eli Lilly. Earlier in August 2025, Leerink Partners downgraded Eli Lilly's stock, citing disappointing initial results for the oral GLP-1 drug, orforglipron. This led to a reduction in the 2030 revenue projection for orforglipron by 38% and a lowered five-year compound annual growth rate for the company's earnings per share. Despite this earlier setback, the current upgrade signals renewed confidence in Eli Lilly's long-term prospects, particularly given the broader market dynamics and the company's diverse pipeline.

Recent developments have further highlighted Eli Lilly's strategic initiatives. President Trump's announcement of a deal with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to lower the prices of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs is expected to significantly expand access to these treatments, potentially reaching as many as 15 million Americans through reduced monthly costs for Medicare and Medicaid patients, as well as a new TrumpRx program. Furthermore, Eli Lilly anticipates FDA approval for orforglipron by March 2026, reinforcing its commitment to expanding its presence in the obesity treatment market.

The market has also seen other firms adjust their stance on LLY. Morgan Stanley, for example, raised its price target for Eli Lilly in July, maintaining an Overweight rating. This series of analyst actions underscores the dynamic nature of market sentiment towards Eli Lilly, driven by clinical trial results, regulatory approvals, and broader market trends.

Eli Lilly's recent financial performance has been robust, with obesity and diabetes drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound generating over $10 billion in third-quarter sales, accounting for more than half of the company's total revenue. This surge highlights the growing demand for GLP-1 receptor agonist treatments and has intensified competition in the pharmaceutical sector.

Adding another layer to the company's strategic approach, Eli Lilly is collaborating with Indiana University on a five-year workplace study to assess the effects of GLP-1 medications on employee health and productivity. This initiative reflects a broader effort to understand the societal impact of obesity management medications.