HPE Stock Inches Higher Ahead of Earnings: Is $20 The New Floor?

Hewlett Packard Enterprise stock (NYSE:HPE) is trading in a downward channel as anticipation builds for the company's earnings report due later today. HPE has demonstrated resilience, gaining 3% on the week, yet remain ~15% lower over the past two months.

Markets are looking to the earnings, with analysts projecting an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.58 and revenue of $9.91 billion for the quarter. These estimates are set against a backdrop of significant strategic moves, particularly in the AI and networking sectors. While the EPS would match the mark reported this period last year, revenue projections indicate a robust 17.22% year-over-year growth.

HPE has experienced notable volatility over the past year, with its stock price fluctuating between $11.97 and $26.44. However, the recent bounce suggests that $20 may be acting as support, signaling renewed confidence.

Recent developments have significantly shaped market sentiment towards HPE. The company's strategic embrace of AMD's Helios rack architecture for AI systems, announced yesterday, marks a pivotal step in enhancing its AI capabilities. This collaboration, slated to materialize in 2026, will integrate up to 72 next-generation Instinct MI455X GPUs and new EPYC “Venice” CPUs per rack, delivering a formidable 2.9 exaFLOPS of FP4 performance per rack. 

Further solidifying its position in the AI landscape, HPE has partnered with CrowdStrike to secure AI workloads. By integrating the CrowdStrike Falcon platform into HPE Private Cloud AI, the collaboration aims to provide comprehensive end-to-end protection across hybrid and multi-cloud environments. This focus on security is crucial for fostering trust in enterprise-ready AI solutions.

The integration of Juniper Networks, following the completion of the $14 billion acquisition in July 2025, is a cornerstone of HPE's strategy to strengthen its networking portfolio. HPE envisions a “cross pollination” between Juniper Mist and Aruba Central, migrating key features to enhance overall functionality. The development of dual-platform Wi-Fi 7 access points compatible with both systems exemplifies this integration effort.

However, the Juniper acquisition has not been without its challenges. Regulatory scrutiny, including a legal challenge from a group of states concerned about market consolidation, has added a layer of complexity. While a settlement was reached, allowing the deal to proceed with certain conditions, ongoing legal challenges could potentially impact HPE's strategic plans and investor confidence.

Despite these challenges, analysts remain optimistic about HPE's prospects. Barclays recently raised its price target for HPE to $26 from $24, maintaining an overweight rating. The analyst cited the Juniper acquisition as a key driver, positioning HPE as a major player in the networking market with a diversified portfolio. The anticipated increase in higher-margin networking revenues and cost synergies from the deal are expected to fuel substantial earnings growth by fiscal year 2027.

Historically, HPE's stock has exhibited an average price change of approximately 1.5% following earnings announcements, suggesting a potential movement of around $0.33 per share in either direction post-earnings today. Traders will be closely watching to see if the company can meet its projected revenue growth, and if the market believes the Juniper acquisition and the AI strategy is paying off.