Artificial intelligence will remain the dominant force behind global equity gains into 2026, according to a note from UBS, which argues that AI-related shares still have “large return potential” despite recent policy noise.
UBS highlighted a fresh catalyst for the sector after NVIDIA shares rose 2.3% in after-hours trading on Monday on news that U.S. President Donald Trump granted the company permission to ship its H200 GPUs to China in exchange for a 25% cut of sales.
Similar deals for AMD and Intel are being finalised, easing some of the export-control uncertainty that has weighed on semiconductor names.
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While UBS cautioned that “some export controls are expected to remain in place,” the bank said structural growth drivers “will likely outweigh policy risks.”
The note argues that AI remains a transformational investment theme. UBS wrote that it “may prove to be one of the largest investment opportunities in human history,” pointing to accelerating capital expenditure.
Global AI capex is now estimated at $423bn this year, “more than 25% above our initial 2027 projections.”
UBS added that the rapid buildout does not resemble a bubble, saying company fundamentals remain “reasonable compared to historical bubble peaks.”
User adoption is also said to be outpacing expectations. ChatGPT has reached more than 800 million weekly active users, while paid AI adoption among U.S. companies has jumped to nearly 45%. UBS cited early monetisation metrics, including a Microsoft-commissioned IDC study showing companies are generating “around USD 3.70 in returns for every USD 1 invested.”
UBS concluded that investors underexposed to AI should “consider diversified exposure across the AI value chain,” with an increasing focus on the application layer, where it expects the strongest long-term upside.
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