Birkenstock Bounces From Lows Ahead of Earnings: What Next?

Shares of Birkenstock Holding plc (NYSE: BIRK) have bounced more than 20% off recent lows, yet remain a similar amount in the red YTD (-19%), as markets gear up for earnings . With the company reporting before this morning's opening bell, there is an air of anticipation leading in.

The Street is expecting the company to deliver an EPS of $0.36, a solid rise on the $0.29 delivered last year. Revenue on the quarter is expected to come in at $521.1 million, for a 14.34% growth rate. 

Leading up to the earnings announcement, Birkenstock has witnessed a series of developments impacting investor sentiment. Guggenheim upgraded the stock to a “strong-buy” rating on December 11, signalling confidence in the company's growth potential and financial stability. This positive assessment may have contributed to the stock's recent attempt to recover from its lows.

Institutional investors have also demonstrated increased confidence in Birkenstock. Federated Hermes Inc. increased its stake by 39.9% in the second quarter of 2025, holding 1,331,927 shares valued at approximately $65.5 million. Bamco Inc. NY raised its position by 11.3%, now holding 4,477,403 shares worth about $220.2 million. These substantial investments suggest a belief in Birkenstock's long-term value.

In September, Birkenstock revised its fiscal 2025 revenue forecast upward, expecting at least €2.09 billion, surpassing previous guidance. The company anticipates fourth-quarter sales of at least €520 million, representing a 14% increase on a reported basis and 18% in constant currency. The adjusted EBITDA margin is reaffirmed at 31.3% to 31.8%, despite foreign exchange headwinds. This optimistic outlook reflects the company's strong performance and operational efficiency.

To support its expansion, Birkenstock acquired a production and logistics facility near Dresden, Germany for €18 million. The facility, expected to be operational by fiscal 2027, will initially focus on sandal, clog, and footbed production. This strategic acquisition aims to enhance manufacturing capacity and meet growing global demand.

Birkenstock's third quarter fiscal 2025 results, reported in August 2025, showcased strong financial performance. Revenue reached €635 million, a 12% increase on a reported basis and 16% in constant currency. The gross profit margin improved by 100 basis points to 60.5%, and the adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 140 basis points to 34.4%. The company experienced double-digit revenue growth across all regions, including the Americas (+16% constant currency), EMEA (+13%), and APAC (+24%). Birkenstock also expanded its retail presence, opening 13 new stores, bringing the total to 90.

The upcoming earnings report will be crucial in determining Birkenstock's near-term direction. Strong results, coupled with positive guidance, could propel the stock higher, potentially leading to a retest of $50. Conversely, disappointing results could lead to a pullback, potentially testing the $42.00 support level.