DHL Group shares (ETR:DHL) experienced a decline this morning after Goldman Sachs downgraded the company's rating, reflecting a shift in market sentiment towards the logistics giant. The downgrade, part of a broader reassessment of the European transportation sector, has prompted investors to re-evaluate DHL's prospects.
The DHL share price of fell by 0.98% to €47.40 in early trading following the announcement. The movement reflects an immediate market reaction to the revised outlook from Goldman Sachs, which moved its rating from ‘Buy' to ‘Neutral' while increasing the price target from €48 to €51. This change in rating suggests a more tempered expectation for DHL's performance in the near to medium term.
Goldman Sachs' decision underscores concerns about relative valuations and evolving industry dynamics within the European transportation landscape. While the firm raised its price target, the downgrade indicates a belief that DHL's potential for outperformance is now more limited compared to its peers. This adjustment aligns with broader industry-wide reviews and outlook revisions for 2026.
Price Targets
The downgrade from Goldman Sachs follows a series of mixed analyst ratings for DHL Group in recent months. In August 2025, JPMorgan lowered its price target to €48.50, citing potential risks stemming from changes to U.S. de minimis rules affecting international shipments. The firm estimated that such policy changes could negatively impact DHL's 2025 EBIT by up to €200 million.
Prior to JPMorgan's adjustment, Bernstein downgraded DHL Group in July 2025, citing headwinds such as new tariffs and macroeconomic challenges. BofA Securities also downgraded the stock in September 2025 due to weaker demand and declining earnings forecasts, highlighting a potential downside from the then-current share price. Morgan Stanley downgraded DHL Group in November 2025, expressing concerns that cost-cutting measures were masking persistent revenue weaknesses.
Bull Case:
- Goldman Sachs raised its price target for DHL from €48 to €51, indicating higher valuation potential.
- The company reported a strong Q4 2024, with operating profit surpassing market expectations.
- DHL's Express segment demonstrated robust performance, driving overall revenue growth.
- The mean analyst price target of €51.00 suggests potential upside from the current price.
Bear Case:
- Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock's rating from ‘Buy' to ‘Neutral', suggesting limited near-term outperformance.
- Multiple analysts, including JPMorgan, Bernstein, and BofA Securities, have recently downgraded the stock or lowered price targets due to various headwinds like regulatory changes, tariffs, and weaker demand.
- The company issued a cautious EBIT forecast for 2025, which fell below market consensus.
- Concerns persist that cost-cutting measures may be masking underlying revenue weaknesses.
The recent share price movement reflects a culmination of factors, including analyst downgrades, trade concerns, and revenue weaknesses. While DHL has demonstrated resilience through effective cost management and strong segment performances, external factors continue to shape investor confidence. After a rally of 43.45% over the past 12 months, a pause whilst markets reassess the outlook from here could see DHL retest highs, or support in the sessions ahead.
Searching for the Perfect Broker?
Discover our top-recommended brokers for trading stocks, forex, cryptos, and beyond. Dive in and test their capabilities with complimentary demo accounts today!
- eToro Wide range of instruments available to trade – Read our Review
- Vantage High levels of account and deposit protection – Read our Review
- XTB UK regulated by the FCA – Read our Review
YOUR CAPITAL IS AT RISK. 76% OF RETAIL CFD ACCOUNTS LOSE MONEY
