Strategy Price Target Trimmed (MSTR): A Deeper Look Reveals Bullish Tone

Strategy Inc's stock price (NASDAQ:MSTR) has added 1% to hit $172.62 early today, as markets take note of a mixed analyst note.

Mizuho Securities has reduced its price target on Strategy Inc. to $403 from $484 while maintaining an Outperform rating, as the Bitcoin-focused company navigates turbulent cryptocurrency markets and prepares for its upcoming February earnings report.

The stock has experienced significant volatility in recent months, currently trading well below Mizuho's new target, which still implies substantial upside potential of approximately 137% from current levels.

Analyst Dan Dolev's price target reduction of 16.74% comes as part of Mizuho's broader reassessment of the financial technology, payments, cryptocurrency, and IT services sectors for 2026. Despite the lowered target, the firm's maintained Outperform rating signals continued confidence in Strategy's long-term prospects as a leveraged play on Bitcoin appreciation.

Strategy's aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy remains central to its investment thesis. Between December 1 and December 7, 2025, the company sold 442,536 shares of its stock, generating net proceeds of $34.9 million, which it immediately deployed to purchase 10,624 bitcoins at an aggregate price of $962.7 million. The company now holds between 640,808 and 650,000 BTC, representing approximately 3% of Bitcoin's total supply, with an average acquisition cost of $70,000 to $74,000 per coin.

This relentless buying strategy has delivered impressive near-term financial results. In the third quarter of 2025, Strategy reported earnings per share of $8.42 on net income of $2.8 billion, driven primarily by unrealized gains on its Bitcoin holdings. Markets are anticipating even stronger results for the fourth quarter, with analysts projecting EPS of approximately $46 when the company reports on February 4, 2026.

Full-year 2025 earnings estimates stand at around $78 per share, representing a twelve-fold increase over the prior year, with fiscal 2026 projections moderating to $52 per share. These fluctuations underscore the company's sensitivity to Bitcoin price movements, with the stock exhibiting a beta of 2.68 to 3.43, indicating volatility several times higher than the broader market.

Mizuho's research note contextualized the Strategy target adjustment within a broader fintech and payments outlook for 2026. The firm highlighted that the sector enters the new year “with major political, macro, and product catalysts” that could reshape competitive dynamics. Specifically, Dolev noted that potential rate caps may ultimately benefit payment networks and buy now pay later players, as shifts from traditional credit to BNPL products could drive incremental debit transaction volume.

While Strategy's core business intelligence software operations remain secondary to its Bitcoin treasury strategy, the company's August 2025 rebranding from MicroStrategy Incorporated to Strategy Inc. reflects its evolution into what CEO Michael Saylor has termed a “Bitcoin development company.” The name change, effective August 11, 2025, did not affect the company's corporate structure or Nasdaq trading symbols but signaled a strategic pivot that has polarized analyst opinion.

Despite Mizuho's reduced target, the broader Wall Street consensus remains constructive. Strategy carries an average analyst rating of “Strong Buy” with a consensus price target of $485.86, slightly above Mizuho's revised figure. This suggests that while individual firms are recalibrating expectations, the overall Street view continues to price in significant appreciation potential tied to anticipated Bitcoin price increases.

Technical indicators show the stock finding support in the $166 to $170 range, with resistance levels established at the $425 to $455 zone from the May 2025 peak. Recent trading has shown modest recovery attempts, with intraday ranges between $167.92 and $173.67 on Friday, though sustained upward momentum has proven elusive amid cryptocurrency market uncertainty.

The company's upcoming February 4 earnings report will be closely watched for updates on Bitcoin acquisition pace, balance sheet management, and any strategic adjustments to its capital allocation framework. With Strategy holding such a substantial portion of Bitcoin's circulating supply, its treasury operations have become a significant factor in cryptocurrency market dynamics, creating a feedback loop between Bitcoin prices and the company's stock valuation.