Intels Stock (INTC) Rallying Into Earnings, After 6 Month Double Up – The Latest

Intel’s stock (NASDAQ:INTC) has been a huge outperformer in recent months, adding 49.16% over the past month, and more than doubling (+133%) over the past 6 months. With expectations clearly heightened, and INTC looking set to start the day at almost 5 year highs above $54.50, what is the street looking for?

Earnings are due out after the closing bell, with consensus revenue expectations at $13.4B and $0.08 adjusted EPS, matching Intel’s prior guide midpoint and creating a setup where margin trajectory and foundry customer traction matter more than headline EPS pennies.

Whilst revenue is expected to have narrowed 6% Y/Y, and EPS down from the $013 this time last year, sentiment has shifted firmly bullish on what lies ahead.

The estimate narrative over the past year has been less about steady progression and more about credibility resets. Q2 2025 illustrated the pattern: Intel posted $12.9B revenue against an $11.92B estimate but reported an adjusted loss of $0.10 per share versus a $0.01 profit expectation, as restructuring charges and impairments overwhelmed the revenue beat. That combination hardened a 2025 pattern where Intel can make the quarter on sales yet fail to make the model on gross margin and cost items that investors increasingly treat as the scoreboard for the turnaround. Heading into Q4, consensus has converged with Intel’s own $0.08 EPS guide, effectively eliminating room for EPS surprise theater and shifting sensitivity to margin, data center momentum, and any update that changes the perceived durability of 18A and 14A competitiveness.

The forward view centers on whether Intel can prove that AI-adjacent demand translates into durable gross margin and cash flow rather than one-off boosts. The company guided Q4 gross margin to 36.5% at the midpoint, and any upside would signal that cost actions are sticking. With the U.S. government now Intel’s largest shareholder following an $8.9B investment and Nvidia holding a $5B strategic stake, the quarter must validate that political and financial backing aligns with operational execution. A beat on margin combined with tangible foundry customer proof points would support the recent rally; a miss on profitability or cautious Q1 guide would expose the stock’s expensive 77x forward P/E ratio as unsustainable.

Consensus Estimates

Consensus has converged with Intel’s prior guidance across both revenue and EPS, eliminating the typical estimate vs. guidance tension that often drives earnings reactions. The $13.4B revenue midpoint sits just 0.8% above Intel’s $13.3B guide, while the $0.08 EPS estimate matches management’s figure exactly. This alignment shifts the burden of proof from beating numbers to demonstrating margin quality and forward momentum. The 13.2% downward EPS revision over the past 30 days reflects recent analyst caution despite the stock’s 149% rally, with five downward revisions outnumbering one upward adjustment. The 38.5% year-over-year EPS decline underscores that Intel remains in a profitability trough, making the 150 basis point gross margin expansion the critical tell on whether cost actions are translating into sustainable improvement or merely offsetting mix headwinds.

Management Guidance and Commentary

“We expect outsized data center demand from hyperscalers this year to be a significant tailwind for Intel’s data center business.”

KeyBanc’s upgrade to Overweight with a $60 price target on January 13, 2026, centered on the view that Intel may be sold out of server CPUs for 2026, potentially driving pricing power in the data center segment. This commentary aligns with Intel’s Q3 2025 messaging that AI is accelerating compute demand across x86 platforms and that demand was outpacing supply into 2026. The company explicitly tied its Q3 beat to improved execution, AI-driven compute demand, and strengthening liquidity via government and strategic investments, framing the narrative around capacity constraints rather than demand uncertainty. For Q4, Intel guided revenue to $12.8B-$13.8B (midpoint $13.3B) and non-GAAP EPS to $0.08, with a 36.5% non-GAAP gross margin assumption at the midpoint, excluding Altera after the sale and deconsolidation.

The gap between consensus and guidance is minimal, just 0.8% on revenue and zero on EPS, but the setup is anything but neutral. Intel’s Q2 2025 experience demonstrated that matching revenue guidance while missing on profitability triggers negative reactions, as restructuring charges and impairment impacts can overwhelm top-line stability. The Q4 guide excludes Altera, effectively narrowing what investors should underwrite into the quarter and raising the burden of proof on core Intel execution. Management’s emphasis on AI-driven demand and supply constraints sets up a test: can Intel translate hyperscaler spending into margin expansion and cash flow, or will the quarter reveal that revenue growth remains decoupled from profitability improvement?

CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s first full quarter at the helm will test whether aggressive restructuring and cost-cutting measures can restore margin credibility.

The forward view matters more than the quarter itself. Intel’s Q1 2025 beat on revenue and EPS was followed by a stock decline because guidance pointed to macro and trade-policy uncertainty, with Q2 revenue guided below consensus at the time. A similar dynamic could emerge if Q4 delivers on the $0.08 EPS but Q1 2026 guidance implies another seasonal or macro air pocket. Conversely, a guide that lifts the forward revenue and margin slope would validate the view that Intel has turned a corner on execution rather than merely benefiting from transitory items. The market is less focused on whether Intel can hit $0.08 and more focused on whether the quarter is carried by mix and true margin progress or by financial engineering.

Analyst Price Targets & Ratings

Wall Street remains cautious on Intel despite the recent rally, with only 40% of analysts rating shares a Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus target of $42.46 implies 21.7% downside from current levels, reflecting skepticism that the stock’s 149% rally can sustain without fundamental improvement. The Hold-heavy distribution (48% of ratings) suggests analysts view Intel as fairly valued at current levels but lack conviction in either direction. The negative price target differential is unusual for a stock that has rallied significantly, indicating that analyst targets have not kept pace with the share price appreciation.

Sector & Peer Comparison

Intel trades at a 77x forward P/E ratio, more than triple NVIDIA’s 23.9x and TSMC’s 24.9x, despite a 0.4% profit margin that sits 52.6 percentage points below NVIDIA and 44.7 points below TSMC. The valuation premium reflects the market pricing a turnaround narrative rather than current profitability, betting that 18A process technology and foundry ambitions will close the margin gap with peers. AMD, Intel’s closest competitor in x86 CPUs, trades at 36.6x forward earnings with a 10.3% profit margin, suggesting the market assigns Intel a higher multiple based on potential rather than execution. The 904.2 trailing P/E ratio is distorted by near-zero profitability over the past year, making the forward multiple the more relevant valuation metric.

Earnings Track Record

Intel’s 72.2% beat rate over the past 20 quarters masks a pattern where headline beats often failed to translate into sustained stock gains due to guidance-related disappointments. The past four quarters illustrate the dynamic: Q1 2025 delivered a 1200% EPS surprise ($0.13 vs $0.01), yet the stock declined in extended trading because management guided Q2 revenue below consensus. Q2 2025 beat revenue expectations but posted a $0.10 loss versus a $0.01 profit estimate, as restructuring charges overwhelmed the top-line performance. Q3 2025 produced a 519.9% EPS surprise, but the forward guide to $0.08 Q4 EPS set a low bar that consensus has since matched exactly. The negative 3.5% average surprise reflects the two massive misses in Q3 2024 and Q2 2025, both driven by restructuring and impairment impacts rather than operational shortfalls.

Post-Earnings Price Movement History

Intel’s post-earnings price reactions over the past five quarters demonstrate that guidance and margin quality drive stock movement more than headline EPS surprises. Q1 2025 delivered a 1200% EPS beat yet the stock declined 2.9% the next day, as management’s cautious Q2 revenue guide overshadowed the result. Q2 2025 posted a massive EPS miss but the stock rose 0.7%, suggesting the market had already priced in restructuring impacts and focused instead on the revenue beat and Q3 guide. Q3 2025’s 519.9% surprise generated a 4.2% gain, the strongest reaction in the recent period, as the quarter combined an earnings beat with improved liquidity commentary and government investment validation.

Expected Move & Implied Volatility

The options market prices an 8.0% move in either direction for Intel’s post-earnings reaction, significantly above the +0.8% average historical move and the +1.4% median. This elevated expectation reflects the stock’s recent momentum, the 149% rally over the past year, and the binary nature of the quarter’s potential outcomes. Implied volatility at 62% sits in the 78th percentile of its historical range and 8 percentage points above the 30-day realized volatility of 54%, indicating options traders are pricing greater uncertainty than recent price action would suggest.

Intel’s 18A process node represents the company’s bid to regain manufacturing leadership, with claims of being ahead of TSMC’s competing 2nm technology.

Expert Predictions & What to Watch

Key Outlook: Cautiously Bullish with Margin Contingency

Key Metrics to Watch

The watchlist prioritizes metrics that distinguish between a quarter carried by financial engineering versus one driven by operational improvement. Gross margin above 37.0% would represent 50 basis points of upside to guidance and would signal that Intel’s cost actions are sticking while product mix is improving. This metric matters because Intel’s profitability has been the primary source of investor skepticism, and any evidence that margins are inflecting would support the view that the company is on a path to mid-single-digit profit margins within 2026. Data center revenue above $4.5B would exceed the 29% consensus growth rate and validate that Intel is benefiting from AI infrastructure spending rather than merely holding share in a growing market.