Baidu Stock Raised: Barclays Target Suggests Downside After 82% Rally

Baidu's stock price (NASDAQ:BIDU) has fallen 1.79% in pre-market trading, as the Chinese technology giant's remarkable 82.4% rally over the past twelve months could be set to lose momentum according to one analyst at least. The stock, which has surged to new highs in recent sessions, is now trading at $158.26, prompting fresh questions about whether the AI-driven appreciation has outpaced near-term fundamentals.

Barclays analyst Jiong Shao raised the firm's price target on Baidu to $147 from $100 while maintaining an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The upgrade represents a substantial 47% increase in the bank's valuation, yet the new target sits nearly 10% below current price levels, suggesting markets may have run ahead of the company's immediate prospects.

This disconnect between bullish price action and more cautious analyst positioning highlights the tension between Baidu's long-term AI potential and concerns over near-term monetization.

The Barclays revision follows a wave of analyst activity that has seen price targets climb steadily throughout the second half of 2025 and into early 2026. JPMorgan upgraded Baidu to Overweight in November with a $188 price target, citing the company's cloud and AI initiatives as underappreciated growth engines. Jefferies followed in January with a $181 target after Baidu announced plans to spin off its Kunlunxin chip subsidiary through a Hong Kong listing. CLSA set a $160 target in September, pointing to Apollo Go's robotaxi progress and AI cloud revenue matching AliCloud's scale.

Despite this chorus of optimism around Baidu's strategic initiatives, the Barclays target suggests a more measured view may be warranted at current valuations. The Equal Weight rating indicates the bank sees the stock as fairly valued relative to sector peers, even as it acknowledges improved prospects through the higher target. This stance contrasts with the Overweight and Outperform ratings assigned by other institutions, reflecting divergent views on how quickly Baidu can translate AI investments into sustainable revenue growth.

The proposed Kunlunxin spin-off has emerged as a key catalyst for recent analyst revisions. HSBC raised its target to $130 in January, valuing the chip subsidiary at between $7 and $20 per share to Baidu, with a base case estimate of $15. The bank projects Kunlunxin will generate approximately RMB 6 billion in revenue during 2026, assuming the unit maintains its 70% growth rate from 2025. This potential value unlock through corporate restructuring has become a central theme in the bull case for Baidu shares.

Markets now face the question of whether Baidu's current valuation adequately reflects both the promise of its AI infrastructure and the execution risks inherent in commercializing new technologies. The stock's 82% gain suggests considerable optimism has already been priced in, while the Barclays downside target serves as a reminder that even positive analyst actions can signal caution at elevated levels.