Commerzbank Shares Edge Higher as Raised Price Target Trails Surging Price

Commerzbank AG shares (ETR:CBK) are 0.83%  higher this morning at €35.16, as a raised price target from Barclays failed to match the German lender's dramatic rally over the past year. The modest uptick comes amid growing caution from analysts who increasingly view the stock as richly valued following its 93.3% surge over the past twelve months.

Barclays analyst Krishnendra Dubey lifted the firm's price target on Commerzbank to €30.40 from €25.50 while maintaining an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The new target sits roughly 13% below current trading levels, underscoring the disconnect between analyst expectations and market enthusiasm. The stock has encountered resistance around the €36 mark, with shares pulling back 3.87% since the start of 2026 as momentum stalls near this technical ceiling.

The Barclays revision is the latest in a series of analyst actions that reflect mounting valuation concerns despite Commerzbank's strong operational performance. Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from Overweight to Equalweight on September 2, 2025, even as it raised its price target to €36.00 from €32.00.

The firm acknowledged solid second-quarter results but expressed unease with the stock trading at 1.3 times tangible book value following its substantial appreciation.

Despite the cautious analyst sentiment, Commerzbank has taken concrete steps to enhance shareholder value. On December 17, 2025, the bank completed a significant share buyback programme, repurchasing 30,972,690 shares for approximately €1 billion, representing 2.75% of its share capital. The move formed part of the bank's Momentum strategy and demonstrated management's confidence in the business.

More recently, JPMorgan raised its price target to €36.00 from €33.00 on January 21, 2026, while maintaining a Neutral rating. The firm acknowledged Commerzbank's successful transformation but suggested upside potential appears limited at current valuation levels.

Markets now face a tug-of-war between Commerzbank's improved fundamentals and potentially stretched valuation metrics. The stock's struggle to break decisively above €36 suggests investors are weighing whether the bank's operational progress justifies further multiple expansion, particularly as major sell-side firms grow increasingly circumspect about the risk-reward profile at these levels.