Exxon Mobil Stock (XOM) Makes New ATH Ahead of Earnings – What To Expect

Exxon Mobil’s stock price (NYSE: XOM) has made fresh all-time-highs leading in to tomorrow’s earnings, hitting $142.34, up 30% over the past year. With bullish momentum building, and the stock outperforming the S&P 500 (+15% on the period), attention is high, and expectations are raised for the print.

The company reports before Friday’s opening bell, with the consensus at $1.66 EPS, slightly below the midpoint of Exxon’s sensitivity framework, which signals upstream headwinds of $0.8B to $1.2B partially offset by refining tailwinds of $0.3B to $0.7B.

XOM trades at 20.0x trailing earnings, creating limited margin for error if execution merely meets rather than exceeds the sensitivity midpoint.

The setup reflects a market that has already priced in operational momentum. Exxon delivered four consecutive adjusted EPS beats from 4Q24 through 3Q25, yet the stock response to each print was muted or negative, with shares down 1.5% to 1.8% intraday following three of the four reports.

Consensus EPS estimates have been revised 6.3% lower over the past 30 days, consistent with the pattern established in 4Q24 when estimates fell from $1.76 to $1.56 in the three weeks before results. The current $1.66 estimate positions the bar at a level where Exxon can beat on operational execution, but the stock’s 28.8% gain over the past 52 weeks suggests guidance and cash flow conversion will matter more than the reported number.

Geopolitical developments in Venezuela and Iran have added a risk premium to oil prices, with some analysts projecting Brent crude toward $71 per barrel if Iranian exports face partial disruption.

Exxon’s low-cost production base in Guyana and the Permian positions the company to benefit from elevated prices, but the market appears focused on whether free cash flow can sustain the $20B share buyback program and 43-year dividend growth streak while funding capital allocation for transformation initiatives in carbon capture and lithium.

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Consensus Estimates

The $1.66 consensus EPS estimate reflects a 9.4% year-over-year decline from 4Q24’s $1.83 result, positioning expectations below the prior year despite production growth. The estimate sits approximately $0.10 below where consensus stood 30 days ago, consistent with the pattern of late-quarter resets that preceded each of the past four reports. Exxon’s sensitivity framework, disclosed January 7, provides more actionable guidance than a formal EPS target. The midpoint of the upstream headwind ($1.0B) and refining tailwind ($0.5B) implies a net $0.5B drag on sequential earnings, which translates to roughly $0.12 per share pressure before accounting for volume growth and cost execution.

The estimate range of $1.20 to $1.95 is unusually wide, spanning 63% from low to high, reflecting uncertainty around commodity realizations and margin outcomes. Revenue consensus of $82.85B represents a modest 0.7% decline year-over-year, but the range extends from $78.24B to $86.97B, an $8.7B spread that underscores the difficulty of modeling top-line performance in a volatile pricing environment. The refining contribution carries the most upside optionality, with Exxon’s sensitivity framework indicating potential earnings lift of $0.3B to $0.7B if margins strengthen as expected.

Management Guidance and Commentary

“We’re on track to deliver industry-leading volume growth and shareholder returns while maintaining capital discipline. Our advantaged portfolio in Guyana and the Permian continues to generate strong cash flow even in a lower price environment.”

Exxon’s 4Q25 sensitivity framework, disclosed in early January, signals lower crude prices could reduce upstream earnings by $0.8B to $1.2B compared to the prior quarter, while stronger refining margins could lift earnings by $0.3B to $0.7B. The company also flagged approximately $200M in restructuring charges tied to portfolio optimization. Interpreting the midpoints, upstream faces a $1.0B headwind while refining provides a $0.5B tailwind, implying net sequential pressure of $0.5B before volume and cost offsets. This framework has become Exxon’s de facto guidance mechanism, replacing formal quarterly EPS targets and serving as the primary input for consensus resets.

The gap between consensus and the sensitivity midpoint is narrow but meaningful. The $1.66 EPS estimate implies Exxon must deliver on the refining tailwind and limit upstream deterioration to the lower end of the stated range. Management’s emphasis on “advantaged portfolio” and “capital discipline” in recent communications suggests confidence in volume growth offsetting price weakness, but the market has learned to focus on cash flow conversion rather than headline earnings.

Analyst Price Targets & Ratings

Wall Street sentiment reflects caution at current levels, with 50% of analysts rating shares a Hold and the consensus target implying 4.8% downside. The 3.2/5.0 rating score positions Exxon in neutral territory, with only 40% of analysts recommending Buy or Strong Buy ratings. This distribution suggests the analyst community views the stock as fairly valued to slightly overvalued at current levels near $140.

Sector & Peer Comparison

Exxon trades at a 41% premium to Chevron on trailing P/E (20.0x vs 14.2x) and a 104% premium to Shell (9.8x), reflecting the market’s valuation of Exxon’s production growth trajectory and integrated business model. The 19.5x forward P/E positions Exxon at the high end of the integrated oil peer group, exceeded only by its own trailing multiple. This valuation premium is partially justified by Exxon’s 9.18% profit margin, which ranks second among large-cap integrateds behind ConocoPhillips’ 12.34% but well ahead of European peers Shell (6.32%) and BP (3.21%).

Earnings Track Record

Exxon’s 73.7% beat rate over the past 20 quarters establishes a pattern of operational execution exceeding lowered expectations. The company delivered four consecutive beats from 4Q24 through 2Q25, with the largest surprise coming in 4Q24 at +11.0% after consensus had been reset from $1.76 to $1.56 in the three weeks before results. The 3Q25 miss of 1.7% broke the streak but was modest in magnitude, with the $1.76 result still representing solid execution in a challenging pricing environment.

Post-Earnings Price Movement History

The average next-day move of +0.9% masks significant variability in Exxon’s post-earnings price reactions. Beats have produced an average gain of +1.5%, but three of the past six reports saw muted or negative reactions despite exceeding estimates. The 2Q25 report exemplifies the pattern: Exxon beat by 5.1%, yet shares declined 0.1% the next day as investors focused on management’s M&A commentary and free cash flow concerns.

Expected Move & Implied Volatility

The options market is pricing a 3.2% move in either direction, translating to a range of $135.56 to $144.52 from the current $140.04 price. This expected move sits above the +0.9% historical average next-day reaction but below the +3.5% move that followed the 3Q24 beat. The 24.5% implied volatility represents a modest premium to the 21.8% realized volatility over the past 30 days, indicating options traders are pricing slightly elevated uncertainty without panic positioning.

Expert Predictions & What to Watch

Key Outlook: Neutral with Downside Bias

The case for a neutral stance rests on three constraints. First, consensus has been reset 6.3% lower over the past 30 days, consistent with the pattern that preceded the 4Q24 beat, but the $1.66 estimate already incorporates the midpoint of Exxon’s sensitivity framework. Second, the stock trades at 20.0x trailing earnings with analyst price targets implying 4.8% downside, leaving minimal cushion for disappointment. Third, the past three earnings beats produced flat to negative next-day reactions as investors focused on guidance and cash flow rather than the reported number.

Key Metrics to Watch

The refining segment carries the most immediate upside optionality. Exxon’s sensitivity framework signals a potential $0.3B to $0.7B earnings lift, with the midpoint at $0.5B already embedded in consensus. A result at the high end would add approximately $0.15 per share and support a print near $1.80, creating room for the stock to sustain its valuation premium. Conversely, refining margins at the low end would pressure results toward $1.60 and raise questions about the durability of downstream margin recovery.

Production volumes in Guyana and the Permian underpin the long-term bull thesis. Management’s target of 5.5M barrels per day by 2030 requires consistent execution, and any shortfall or cautious commentary on 2026 growth would pressure the stock’s 20.0x multiple. The 4Q25 report provides the first full-year 2025 production summary and sets the baseline for 2026 expectations.

Free cash flow generation and capital allocation will determine whether Exxon can sustain its shareholder return commitments while funding transformation investments. The 3Q25 report saw free cash flow decline year-over-year due to higher capital spending on Permian acreage acquisitions, triggering a 1.8% intraday selloff before shares recovered. The 4Q25 report will provide full-year 2025 cash flow and set the framework for 2026 capital allocation.