Alcoa Price Target (NYSE:AA) Raised on Strong Earnings and 2026 Outlook

Alcoa Corporation's stock (NYSE:AA) has been given a boost this morning, as B. Riley analyst Nick Giles substantially raised the firm's price target on the aluminium producer to $78 from $44, while maintaining a Buy rating on the shares.

The dramatic 77% increase in the target price follows Alcoa's solid fourth-quarter performance and reflects growing confidence in the company's positioning for 2026.

Giles pointed to Alcoa's strategic capital allocation plans as a key factor in the upgraded outlook. The company intends to direct excess 2026 cash flow toward additional debt reduction while maintaining flexibility to evaluate shareholder returns. This balanced approach addresses both balance sheet strength and potential investor distributions, a combination that typically resonates well with markets seeking both stability and value creation.

A revised commodity price deck served as another catalyst for the target boost. Aluminum prices and related market dynamics have shown resilience, with the Midwest Premium spot prices remaining elevated. These favorable pricing conditions provide a supportive backdrop for Alcoa's revenue generation and margin expansion potential throughout 2026.

The company's fourth-quarter 2025 results demonstrated operational momentum. Alcoa reported revenue of $3.4 billion, representing a 15% sequential increase from the third quarter. Net income reached $226 million, or $0.85 per share, while adjusted net income came in at $335 million, or $1.26 per share. The company generated $537 million in cash from operations during the quarter and closed with a cash balance of $1.6 billion, providing substantial financial flexibility.

B. Riley's bullish stance contrasts with a more mixed picture from other Wall Street analysts. Wells Fargo downgraded Alcoa from Overweight to Equal-Weight on January 13, though the firm simultaneously raised its price target from $58 to $71. JP Morgan has maintained a Neutral rating with a $45 target, while Citigroup reaffirmed its Buy rating in December with a $54 target. Freedom Capital Markets upgraded the stock to Buy in September, citing structural changes and stronger commodity fundamentals.

The divergence in analyst opinions reflects the complexity of forecasting aluminum market dynamics and Alcoa's ability to capitalize on them. BMO Capital's Market Perform rating with a $37 target represents the more cautious end of the spectrum, suggesting some analysts remain concerned about sustainability of current pricing levels or operational execution risks.

Price Targets

The company's ability to generate strong cash flow while reducing debt positions it favorably in a potentially volatile commodity environment. With the stock still trading below B. Riley's ambitious $78 target, the analyst's outlook suggests meaningful upside potential if commodity conditions remain supportive and operational execution continues to meet expectations throughout 2026.