Carvana Stock Analyst Outlook: CVNA Stacking Up Bulls as UBS Initiates at Buy

Carvana's stock (CVNA) is experiencing a surge in positive sentiment, underpinned by a new ‘Buy' rating from UBS and reaffirmations from other key financial firms. CVNA has added 12.69% over the past month, bringing year-to-date gains to an impressive 87.66%.

UBS initiated coverage on Carvana with a ‘Buy' rating and a price target of $450, citing the company's superior online platform and customer experience. The firm projects a robust 25% annual growth rate in EBITDA through the remainder of the decade, justifying a premium valuation for the stock.

This bullish outlook aligns with Jefferies' recent reiteration of a ‘Buy' rating, accompanied by a price target of $475. Jefferies' analysis anticipates a 41% year-over-year increase in retail units for October, mirroring the strong 43.5% growth seen in the third quarter, potentially exceeding consensus estimates for Q4 by 6%.

Morgan Stanley has also reaffirmed its ‘Overweight' rating on Carvana, maintaining a $450 price target. The firm acknowledges broader concerns about the auto market, but highlights improvements within prime auto performance, specifically noting lower delinquencies and accelerating originations during the third quarter. They emphasize that the gradual increase in delinquencies since 2022 has provided auto issuers like Carvana with ample time to adapt and maintain performance.

Financials Support The Street's View

Carvana's impressive third-quarter results for 2025 further bolster this positive sentiment. The company reported a 44% year-over-year increase in retail units sold, reaching 155,941, and a 55% surge in revenue, totaling $5.647 billion. Net income stood at $263 million, representing a 4.7% margin, while adjusted EBITDA reached $637 million, an 11.3% margin.

The company anticipates retail units for the fourth quarter to exceed 150,000, with full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA projected to be at or above the higher end of its previous $2.0–$2.2 billion range, assuming a stable economic environment.

Price Targets

The consensus among analysts points to a favorable outlook for Carvana, driven by its innovative online platform, strong growth metrics, and strategic initiatives. However, potential headwinds such as rising auto loan delinquencies and seasonal sales fluctuations need to be carefully monitored. The recent analyst upgrades and strong financial performance have contributed to Carvana's bullish momentum, suggesting a positive future sentiment, but not without some potential bumps in the road.