Casey’s (CASY) Bulls Eyeing Breakout as Earnings Loom, Will Momentum In The Stock Hold?

Casey's General stock (NASDAQ: CASY) is trading at $557.52 through the first half of the trading day, 1.6% lower as markets await earnings after the close. 

Markets are expecting a strong report from Casey's. Analysts are projecting an expected EPS of $5.20 and revenue of $4.5 billion. These figures represent a notable increase compared to the same period last year, where Casey's reported an EPS of $4.85 and revenue of $3.95 billion (+13.95% sales growth).

Over the past year, CASY's stock has demonstrated impressive gains, rising 41% since the start of 2025. Unsurprisingly then, technical indicators suggest a bullish trend for the stock, trading above both its 50-day SMA of $548.58 and its 200-day SMA of $493.94.

The company's financial performance in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025  has supported the move higher. Casey's reported earnings per share of $2.63 on sales of $3.99 billion, exceeding analyst expectations. Same-store sales increased by 1.7% year over year, contributing to a 10.8% rise in overall sales. The company also announced a 14% increase in its quarterly dividend, marking the 26th consecutive year of annual dividend growth, a testament to its financial stability and commitment to shareholders.

Looking ahead, Casey's plans to open at least 80 new stores in fiscal 2026, targeting a 10-12% increase in EBITDA. This expansion strategy signals the company's confidence in its ability to capture additional market share and drive future growth.

Casey's has also been actively engaged in strategic partnerships and community initiatives. Its collaboration with K9s For Warriors and chef Andrew Zimmern demonstrates its commitment to social responsibility and brand enhancement. These efforts contribute to a positive brand image and foster customer loyalty.

The implied volatility for CASY options is approximately 38.02%, with an expected move of about 6.25% over the next 11 days. The combination of strong historical performance, positive technical indicators, and anticipated earnings growth positions the stock for a potential breakout. Bears on the other hand will be hoping to test support at $540, or $525 if things go their way.