Casey’s Stock (CASY) Up 28% YTD Into Earnings – What To Expect

Casey's General Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: CASY) is set to report earnings after market close today, and markets are keenly watching to see if the convenience store giant can maintain its impressive performance.

Analysts estimate an earnings per share (EPS) of $5.03 for the upcoming quarter, with revenue projections hovering around $4.47 billion. These expectations are built on Casey's recent track record of exceeding forecasts.

Casey's stock, currently trading at $514 in pre-market hours, up 1.65%, has already delivered a year-to-date return of 28.12%, outperforming many of its peers and the broader market. This surge reflects growing confidence in Casey's strategic initiatives and its ability to navigate a dynamic economic landscape. But can this momentum be sustained?

Recent news further supports the positive outlook. Casey's reported strong fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings, with an EPS of $2.63, exceeding analyst expectations of $2.01. Revenue reached $3.99 billion, also surpassing the anticipated $3.93 billion. Inside same-store sales increased by 1.7% year-over-year, while same-store fuel gallons sold rose by 0.1%.

CEO Darren Rebelez highlighted the company's performance, stating, “Inside same-store sales outperformed the industry, up 2.6%, or 7.1% on a two-year stack basis, led by strong performance in hot sandwiches and bakery as well as alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages.”

The company also announced a 14% increase in its quarterly dividend, raising it to $0.57 per share, and disclosed that it has approximately $295 million remaining under its existing share repurchase authorization.

Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, Casey's projects an EBITDA growth of 10% to 12%. The company anticipates inside same-store sales growth between 2% and 5%, with same-store fuel gallons sold expected to remain flat, plus or minus 1%. These projections, coupled with the planned opening of at least 80 new stores, suggest a continued focus on growth and profitability.

While Casey's has demonstrated impressive growth, replicating this performance consistently is a challenge. The convenience store market is becoming increasingly saturated, and the company's reliance on fuel sales makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices and evolving consumer transportation habits.

Furthermore, the projected EBITDA growth of 10% to 12% for fiscal 2026, while seemingly robust, may already be priced into the current stock valuation. A failure to meet these expectations could trigger a correction.

While the bull case is compelling, a cautious approach, acknowledging the potential risks and a contrarian viewpoint, is always worth considering.