Coinbase Has A Difficult Week – (COIN) Stock Dips 20% As Analysts Cut Targets

Coinbase's stock price (NASDAQ: COIN) came under pressure last week, after a disappointing Q2 2025 earnings release saw analysts move in with downgrades and trimmed price targets.

COIN fell 16.7% on Friday, in a largely risk off day for markets that brought the one-week slump to 20%.

In pre-market trading today, the stock rebounded slightly to $320, up 2% – a cautious recovery amid a volatile backdrop.

The company's Q2 revenue of $1.497 billion fell short of the $1.59 billion consensus estimate. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $512 million. Transaction revenue, a crucial metric for Coinbase, plummeted 39% quarter-over-quarter to $764 million.

Subscription and services revenue also saw a decline, falling 6% to $656 million. While the company highlighted its $9.3 billion in USD resources and $1.8 billion in crypto asset investments, the disappointing results have overshadowed these positives.

The View From The Street

Looking to analysts for clues, there is plenty to go on.

Bank of America (BofA) lowered its price target from $383 to $369, maintaining a Neutral rating, whilst Compass Point took a more bearish stance, downgrading the stock to Sell from Neutral and slashing the price target to $248 from $330.

Analyst Ed Engel at Compass Point cited concerns over a slowdown in retail trading and increased competition from decentralized exchanges.

Oppenheimer analyst Owen Lau lowered the firm's price target on Coinbase to $413 from $417, while maintaining an Outperform rating, acknowledging the weak quarter but pointing to improving Q3 trading volume, strong July trading revenue, and the potential passage of the CLARITY Act as positive catalysts.

The recent acquisition of Deribit and a strong balance sheet were also cited as supportive factors for future growth. Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish reduced the firm's price target to $352 from $359, keeping an Equal Weight rating, noting the Q2 miss and higher spending but also highlighting the company's optimistic tone on growth opportunities given an improving regulatory environment.

JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington adjusted the price target for Coinbase to $215 from $276, maintaining a Neutral stance. The revision followed Coinbase's latest earnings report, which did not meet JPMorgan's expectations. Worthington highlighted the company's strategic initiatives but noted a more challenging transaction environment leading to reduced forward earnings projections.

CFRA analyst Michael Elliott reduced the price target for Coinbase from $335 to $325, maintaining a Hold rating. Despite the target cut, Elliott raised the 2025 earnings per share estimate and introduced a 2026 forecast. He noted that 61% of Coinbase's total revenue is transactional, tying it closely to the fluctuating prices of underlying cryptocurrency tokens.

Piper Sandler revised its price target for Coinbase to $180 from $310, maintaining a Neutral rating. The adjustment reflects the firm's analysis of the cryptocurrency exchange's expected performance for the first quarter of 2025, projecting a 25% year-over-year rise in total revenues.

Citi analysts reduced the stock’s price target to $270 from $350, while maintaining a Buy rating. The revision accounts for the latest trends in cryptocurrency asset prices, trading volumes, user engagement, and other factors. Citi projects a first-quarter net revenue for 2025 that is approximately 4% below consensus, attributing this to a marginally lower retail spread and a change in volume mix.

Not all analysts are bearish. Bernstein analysts increased Coinbase's price target to $510 from $310, citing multiple growth catalysts. They forecast Coinbase to generate $9.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with significant contributions from non-trading sources such as staking and stablecoins. Bernstein emphasized Coinbase's unique market positioning and potential benefits from pending legislation like the GENIUS Act.

Coinbase's management remains optimistic about the company's long-term prospects, emphasizing its commitment to innovation and its ability to navigate the evolving cryptocurrency landscape yet the view from the street is shifting. It will take some time for the dust to settle, yet with few listed names in the crypto space, and an appetite for the sector continuing, there could yet be support to be found.