Cracker Barrel Stock (CBRL) Bounces Off Lows Ahead of Earnings: What to Expect

Cracker Barrel's stock price (NASDAQ: CBRL) is on the move higher today, up 3.57% at $27.57 ahead of earnings, after the close.   CBRL stock is attempting to recover having recently set a new 52 week low at $25.62, and sitting 49.5% lower on the year.

Analysts are anticipating an earnings per share loss of $0.73 for the quarter, a concerning decline compared to the $0.45 profit per share reported for the same period last year. Revenue is also expected to have slowed, down 5.3% Y/Y to $800.28 million at the midpoint of the Street's estimate. The previous quarter, Q4 fiscal 2025, saw the company achieve revenues of $868.09 million, beating expectations of $855.30 million.

The stock's recent performance has been volatile, influenced by several factors. A poorly received logo redesign in August initially triggered a 12.38% drop in share value. While the company quickly reversed course and reinstated the original logo, leading to a partial recovery, the incident caused more than a few issues.

Adding to the uncertainty, GMT Capital Corp recently sold a significant portion of its Cracker Barrel holdings. In early December, the investment firm and related entities offloaded 211,900 shares, generating approximately $5.97 million. These sales, executed at prices ranging from $27.73 to $28.60 per share, reduced GMT Capital's stake to 2,621,800 shares. Such insider activity can often weigh on investor sentiment.

Cracker Barrel's fourth quarter fiscal 2025 earnings, released on September 17, presented a mixed picture. While revenue exceeded expectations, adjusted EPS fell short of estimates. Comparable store restaurant sales showed a positive trend, increasing by 5.8%, but retail sales experienced a slight decrease of 0.8%. The company also announced a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share, alongside a new $100 million share repurchase program.

Leadership and organizational changes were implemented in October, with the promotion of Doug Hisel to Senior Vice President of Store Operations. The company also ended its engagement with consultancy firm Prophet. These moves signal an effort to refocus on core operational strengths, particularly food quality and guest experience.

Shareholder activism has also played a role in shaping the company's narrative. During the November Annual Meeting, nine out of ten board nominees, including CEO Julie Masino, were elected. However, activist investor Biglari Capital voiced concerns about the company's declining share price and market value, urging shareholders to vote against certain directors. 

Technically, Cracker Barrel's stock is currently trading below both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), which stand at $37.77 and $48.36, respectively, highlighting a clear bearish trend. The options market is pricing in significant volatility around the upcoming earnings release. Implied volatility is approximately 73.63%, suggesting an expected price movement of about 11.23% over the next 14 days.