Dell’s Stock Holding Above $130 Into Earnings: What To Expect

Dell Technologies' stock (NYSE: DELL) is currently trading at $132.50, off the back of a 1.15% gain leading into earnings today. This price point is noteworthy as it hovers just above what analysts identify as a key support level of $130. The question now is whether the upcoming earnings report, scheduled for release after today's closing bell, will serve as a catalyst to solidify this bullish trend or expose underlying vulnerabilities.

The consensus expectation for the upcoming earnings report is positive. Analysts are projecting an EPS of $2.29, a substantial jump from the $1.89 reported in the same period last year and the $1.69 in the most recent quarter. Revenue is also anticipated to climb to $29.19 billion, reflecting a robust 16.65% year-over-year growth rate. These projections are fueled by Dell's success in the AI server market.

Technical indicators paint a generally optimistic picture. Dell's 50-day simple moving average (SMA) sits at $125.69, while the 200-day SMA is at $112.53. Both are comfortably below the current stock price, with a bullish trend clearly in tact. However, technicals are only one piece of the puzzle, and the market's reaction to the earnings print will likely dictate the stock's near-term trajectory.

Recent financial results from the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 underscored Dell's growing dominance in AI infrastructure.

While adjusted EPS of $1.55 fell slightly short of expectations, revenue reached $23.38 billion, exceeding forecasts. The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG), driven by a 12% increase, was a key contributor, with $12.1 billion in AI server orders during the quarter.

Dell's AI systems backlog now stands at a significant $14.4 billion, suggesting continued strong demand. This led Dell to raise its annual adjusted profit forecast to $9.40 per share.

However, it's not all smooth sailing. Following the Q1 earnings announcement, Dell's stock experienced a slight dip due to concerns over operating margins within the ISG segment.

The high costs associated with building AI servers and the intensely competitive landscape are putting pressure on profitability. Dell's workforce reduction of 10% in fiscal 2025, while aimed at cost management, also reflects these challenges

Looking ahead, we'll be paying attention to Dell's commentary on margin outlook, competitive pressures, and diversification efforts. The $130 level will be a key area to watch; a break below that point could signal a shift in market sentiment and potentially trigger a correction towards lower support levels around $124. Conversely, a strong performance and guide could solidify Dell's position as a leader in the space and pave the way for a run towards $140.

Markets imply a move of plus/minus 8.85% in DELL post results, although this can vary significantly based on the print.