Flutter Entertainment Stock (FLUT) 27% Off Highs Into Earnings – What to Expect

Flutter Entertainment's stock (NYSE: FLUT) is currently trading at $231, a notable 27% discount from their recent highs. This dip comes as markets brace for the company's Q3 2025 earnings report, scheduled for release after market close today.

Ahead of the earnings release, analysts are projecting earnings of $0.53 per share and revenue of $2.88 billion. Meeting or exceeding these expectations will be crucial for restoring market confidence and potentially triggering a rally in the stock price. However, any significant deviation from these estimates could exacerbate the current downward pressure.

Flutter's recent performance has been a mixed bag. While the company reported a 16% year-over-year increase in revenue for Q2 2025, totaling $4.19 billion, and a 25% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $919 million, net income plummeted by 88% to $37 million. This dramatic decline was attributed to non-cash charges related to the Fox Option valuation, higher amortization of acquired intangibles, and increased income tax expenses.

Adding to the complexity, Flutter announced a share repurchase program of up to $245 million in August, a move typically seen as a positive signal. However, the market reaction was muted, with shares declining 2.8% in premarket trading following the announcement. This suggests that backers may be looking for more concrete evidence of improved profitability before fully embracing the buyback initiative.

Analyst sentiment is also divided. Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial initially raised the price target on FLUT to $353 in July, reflecting confidence in the company's performance. However, more recently, Stifel reaffirmed a “Buy” rating but lowered the price target from $356 to $339, indicating a more cautious outlook. The average analyst price target currently stands at $332.70, suggesting significant upside potential from current levels.

Institutional investment activity paints a similarly complex picture. PRIMECAP Management Co. opened a new $210.9 million position in FLUT, demonstrating faith in the company's long-term prospects. Conversely, Vanguard Group Inc. significantly reduced its holdings by 64.2% in Q1 2025, selling approximately 6.16 million shares. This divergence in institutional opinion highlights the uncertainty surrounding Flutter's near-term outlook.

Adding another layer is insider trading activity. Over the past six months, insiders have predominantly been sellers of FLUT stock, with 21 sales and only one purchase. While insider selling doesn't automatically indicate a negative outlook, it can raise concerns, particularly when combined with other factors.

While the prevailing narrative focuses on the challenges facing Flutter, FLUT bulls suggest that the market may be overly pessimistic. The company operates in a rapidly growing industry with significant barriers to entry. Flutter's established brand, extensive market reach, and technological expertise give it a competitive edge that is difficult to replicate.

The recent decline in net income may be a temporary setback due to specific accounting adjustments and increased investment in growth initiatives. Furthermore, the share repurchase program, while not immediately boosting the stock price, could provide long-term support and enhance shareholder value. Perhaps the insiders are selling for personal reasons, and their actions are not necessarily indicative of a lack of confidence in the company's future.

It is also possible that analysts are being overly cautious in their price targets, and that Flutter could ultimately exceed expectations. Who will be right?