Ford Earnings Cast Shadow, As Stock Charts An Uncertain Path – What To Expect

Ford Motor Co prepares to release its earnings today after market close, with plenty of volatility in the auto sector, with tariffs changing the outlook by the day. While Ford's stock price (NYSE: F) is holding above $11, pullback from the test near $12 ($11.97) leaves holders head into the print on the back of more than 7.5% in declines since early July.

The looming impact of U.S. tariffs, substantial projected losses in its electric vehicle (EV) and software operations, and a recent history of earnings disappointments paint a complex picture for the markets.

The immediate concern is the effect of tariffs enacted under the Trump administration. Ford has already suspended its full-year earnings guidance, a stark admission of the uncertainty these tariffs introduce.

The company anticipates a $2.5 billion hit, aiming to offset $1 billion through cost-cutting measures, leaving a net $1.5 billion dent in adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT).

This stems from increased costs of importing vehicles and parts, primarily from Mexico and China, vital components of Ford's global supply chain. The impact is already visible; Ford's Q1 2025 net income plummeted 64% year-over-year to $471 million, with revenue also declining by 5% to $40.66 billion.

Adding to the pressure is Ford's struggling EV segment. Projected losses of up to $5.5 billion for 2025 mirror the previous year’s deficits, highlighting the ongoing challenges in this rapidly evolving market. Quality issues, policy shifts, and intense competition are all contributing factors. Ford's response has been to delay new EV model launches, pivoting towards a greater focus on hybrid vehicles.

This strategic shift acknowledges the current realities of consumer adoption and infrastructure limitations surrounding EVs, but it also raises questions about Ford's long-term commitment and competitiveness in the all-electric space.

Analysts are projecting earnings of $0.33 per share for the upcoming report, a steep drop from the $0.47 per share earned in the same quarter last year. Revenue is expected to contract by 1.98% year-over-year to approximately $43.93billion.

Ford has been actively attempting to mitigate these challenges. A $500 million investment in its Kentucky Truck Plant to produce the 2025 Expedition SUV, aligning with its “Built for America” campaign, aims to strengthen domestic manufacturing and potentially lessen the tariff impact.

While the prevailing narrative surrounding Ford is one of challenges and uncertainty, a closer look suggests a potential for upside. The market may be overreacting to the tariff impact and EV losses, discounting the underlying strength of Ford's traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle business. The F-150, for example, remains a top-selling truck, generating significant revenue and cash flow.

The road ahead is undoubtedly treacherous, but Ford's storied history suggests it may have the tools to steer through the storm.