Glencore Share Price (GLEN) Rallying Off Lows, Although Firmly Down YTD

Glencore shares (LON:GLEN) have been fighting back in recent months, having rallied more than 40% off the lows, yet continuing to trade 37% below the mark it set 12 months ago. With the Glencore share price currently hovering just under the 300p mark, the 52 week high of 496.12p seems like a long way away, with concerns over the mining and trading giant's performance and strategic direction.

The recent slide is attributable to a mix of factors; notably disappointing production figures, lowered earnings and capital returns, and swirling speculation surrounding a potential relocation of its primary listing.

The first-quarter production update at the end of April showed own-source copper output plummeted by a staggering 30% year-over-year to 167,900 tonnes, significantly missing forecasts of approximately 205,000 tonnes. Similarly, own-source zinc production fell short of expectations, registering 213,600 tonnes against a consensus forecast of 233,545 tonnes. These underwhelming results triggered an immediate sell-off, with the share price dropping over 4% on the day of the announcement, despite the subsequent recovery.

Adding to the negative sentiment, Glencore's 2024 earnings, reported in February 2025, revealed a 16% decline in EBITDA, amounting to $14.36 billion, falling slightly below analyst expectations. While the company announced a $2.2 billion capital return program, including a $1.2 billion base dividend and a $1 billion share buyback scheduled for completion by August, shares dropped on the print.

Strategic uncertainty has also weighed heavily on investor confidence. Glencore disclosed that it was actively considering relocating its primary listing from London, with New York emerging as the frontrunner. This consideration, prompted by a 25% decline in share value over the past year, aims to potentially unlock greater valuation potential.

Looking ahead, markets will be closely watching Glencore's Half-Year 2025 Production Report, scheduled for release on Wednesday, August 6, 2025. This report will provide crucial insights into the company's operational performance and offer clues about its future earnings potential.

Despite the current challenges, Glencore's underlying business remains robust, underpinned by its diversified portfolio of commodities and its global trading network. However, the company needs to address its operational issues, clarify its strategic direction, and restore investor confidence to reverse the current downward trend. The upcoming production report will be a critical test of its ability to do so.