Harbour Energy Shares Trade Below NAV Despite Solid Results, Says Analyst

Harbour Energy (LON: HBR) shares continue to trade at a discount to the company’s underlying value despite in-line full-year results and a refreshed shareholder returns policy, according to analysts at Zeus Capital.

Analyst Daniel Slater said in a research note that Harbour’s 2025 performance matched the guidance provided in its January trading update, reporting production of 474 mboe/d, revenue of about $10.3 billion and free cash flow of $1.1 billion. The results reflected “strong operational performance” and the impact of a full year of the Wintershall portfolio.

Alongside the results, Harbour introduced a new shareholder returns framework, shifting from a fixed dividend to a payout of 45–75% of free cash flow through dividends and buybacks.

Zeus said the change “provides Harbour greater flexibility to adjust shareholder returns as the company both invests in its extensive development portfolio and deleverages its balance sheet.”

The company also updated its 2026 guidance following the completion of its LLOG acquisition in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

While production expectations increased to 475–500 mboe/d, higher capital spending on the newly acquired assets means free cash flow guidance remains around $0.6 billion, making 2026 a “year of transition” as Harbour integrates the assets.

Despite the near-term investment phase, Zeus sees value in the shares. The analysts said Harbour stock is “trading below our 318p total risked NAV,” adding that even at that level the shares would still trade “at a moderate discount to peers on EV/EBITDA.”

Zeus reiterated a Buy rating and 318p target price, citing expectations for ongoing cash flows, renewed deleveraging and continued shareholder returns.