Intel Stock Reassessed Following Earnings – The Latest Price Targets on INTC

Intel’s stock (NASDAQ:INTC) trades sharply lower in pre-market activity, declining 13.29% following a mixed earnings report that prompted a wave of analyst price target revisions.

The semiconductor giant delivered a robust fourth quarter performance but issued disappointing first quarter guidance, citing supply bottlenecks that have constrained its ability to capitalize on surging server CPU demand.

This pullback follows a remarkable run that saw Intel deliver 151.83% returns over the past twelve months and 37% gains since the start of January, leaving the stock vulnerable to profit-taking on any negative catalyst.

Analyst Sentiment Divided

Analyst sentiment remains divided on Intel’s trajectory, reflected in a broad spectrum of price target adjustments ranging from JPMorgan’s $35 at the lower end to KeyBanc’s $65 at the upper bound.

Benchmark raised its target to $57 from $50 while maintaining a Buy rating, acknowledging that shares were poised for a pullback in all but the most optimistic scenarios. The firm noted material progress in Intel’s foundry operations despite capacity constraints limiting near-term growth potential.

UBS increased its price target to $52 from $49 but maintained a Neutral stance, highlighting that Intel’s guidance disappointed despite robust server CPU demand. The firm pointed to supply constraints and structural roadmap disadvantages that limit the company’s participation in AI-driven upside, while PC momentum remains weak amid elevated memory prices. UBS contends that although foundry progress and potential high-profile customer wins could provide incremental positives, earnings power remains constrained and the bull case appears several years away.

The supply constraint narrative dominated analyst commentary across the board. Stifel raised its target to $42 from $35, describing the situation as hand-to-mouth inventory creating temporary bottlenecks amid high demand for server CPUs and the initial ramp-up of 18A production. The firm anticipates that the first quarter should represent the fundamental trough, with a more positive longer-term outlook emerging thereafter, though shares appear fairly valued at current levels.

KeyBanc offered the most bullish perspective, lifting its target to $65 from $60 with an Overweight rating. The firm highlighted strong fourth quarter results with Data Center and AI revenues growing 15% quarter-over-quarter, driven by robust server CPU demand. While first quarter revenue and gross margin guidance came in lower due to peak constraints and the dilutive impact of the initial 18A ramp, capacity is expected to increase with above-seasonal growth anticipated for the remainder of the year. Notably, Intel indicated that customers are expected to make foundry decisions on 14A technology in the second half of 2026, though the company did not confirm Apple as a foundry customer.

On the more cautious end, JPMorgan raised its target to $35 from $30 but maintained an Underweight rating, expressing concern that Intel remains at risk of further market share losses in its product businesses despite quarterly results exceeding expectations. Citi took the unusual step of lowering its price target to $48 from $50, citing expectations that gross margins could remain under pressure due to ongoing supply constraints impacting the March quarter outlook.

The Foundry Pivot and Operational Hurdles

The mixed analyst response underscores the complexity of Intel’s current position. The company is experiencing strong demand fundamentals, particularly in the data center segment where AI-driven workloads are creating robust CPU requirements. However, its ability to capitalize on this demand is hampered by supply constraints that appear to be both capacity-related and tied to the production ramp of new process technologies. The 18A node represents a critical milestone for Intel’s foundry ambitions and its effort to regain process leadership, but the initial production phase is proving dilutive to margins.

Markets are now weighing whether the current pullback represents a buying opportunity following an extended rally or signals deeper structural challenges. The supply constraints are described as temporary by most analysts, with Stifel characterizing the first quarter as a fundamental trough. However, the timeline for resolution remains uncertain, and Intel’s ability to meet demand while simultaneously ramping new process technologies will be closely scrutinized in coming quarters.

The foundry business represents a strategic pivot for Intel, with potential high-profile customer wins offering a pathway to diversified revenue streams beyond its traditional product businesses. Progress on 14A and 18A process technologies has been noted positively, with custom ASIC revenues reportedly reaching a $1 billion-plus annual run rate, up 50% year-over-year. These developments support the longer-term transformation narrative, even as near-term financial performance remains constrained.

Investor Takeaway

For retail investors, the current juncture presents a challenging risk-reward calculus. The stock’s substantial run-up over the past year has compressed the margin of safety, making it vulnerable to execution missteps or guidance disappointments.

The wide dispersion in analyst price targets, ranging from $35 to $65, reflects genuine uncertainty about Intel’s earnings power trajectory and the timeline for foundry monetization. While supply constraints may prove transitory, the company faces ongoing competitive pressures in its core markets and must execute flawlessly on its technology roadmap to justify premium valuations.

Bull Case:

The market reaction suggests that after a period of significant optimism, investors are reassessing Intel’s near-term prospects with greater scrutiny. The combination of strong demand but constrained supply creates an unusual dynamic where the company’s challenges stem not from market weakness but from operational limitations.

How quickly Intel resolves these bottlenecks while maintaining margin discipline will likely determine whether the current pullback represents a temporary setback or a more fundamental reassessment of the company’s competitive position in an increasingly AI-driven semiconductor landscape.