Intuit Earnings On Deck: Can AI Momentum Drive Expected Growth?

Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU), the financial software giant behind TurboTax and QuickBooks, prepares to release its earnings report after today's closing bell. Leading into the print, Intuit's stock reflects some caution, with a 0.5% dip bringing the 12 month return to an underwhelming 3.6%.

The current price also sits below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $760.91, but remains above the 200-day SMA of $661.56. This technical tug-of-war paints a picture of a stock caught between short-term headwinds and long-term optimism.

Analysts expect a strong performance from the company, with projected earnings per share of $2.66, (up from $1.99 in the same quarter last year) for a year-over-year increase of 33.67%. Revenue is estimated to reach $3.75 billion, representing a 17.65% growth compared to $3.18 billion a year ago. These forecasts reflect continued momentum in Intuit’s core business segments, driven by strong demand for financial software and services.

Intuit's fiscal third-quarter 2025 results, revealed in May, were undeniably impressive. Revenue surged 15% to $7.8 billion, net income climbed 18% to $2.82 billion, and earnings per share (EPS) of $11.65 handily beat analyst expectations of $10.91. CEO Sasan Goodarzi proudly proclaimed this the “fastest organic growth that we have had in over a decade,” fueled by strong performance across its Consumer Group, Global Business Solutions Group, and Credit Karma.

The company's full-year revenue guidance has been raised to between $18.72 billion and $18.76 billion, projecting continued growth. This optimism is further bolstered by Intuit's aggressive push into artificial intelligence (AI). The company envisions itself as a “one-stop shop of AI-agents and AI-enabled human experts,” aiming to revolutionize how consumers and small businesses manage their finances.

Analysts, for the most part, are singing Intuit's praises. Goldman Sachs, for example, reiterated a buy rating and raised its price target to $860, citing strong execution and promising AI initiatives. Deutsche Bank echoed this sentiment, maintaining a buy rating and increasing its price target to $815.

While Intuit's AI ambitions are exciting, the tangible impact on its bottom line remains to be fully seen. The integration of AI into existing products like TurboTax and QuickBooks may not be as seamless as anticipated, and customer adoption could be slower than projected. Furthermore, the “one-stop shop” vision carries the risk of spreading the company too thin, diluting its focus and expertise in core areas.

Moreover, Intuit's reliance on acquisitions for growth raises questions about its long-term organic growth potential. While acquisitions like Credit Karma have been successful, the integration of acquired companies can be challenging, and the risk of overpaying for acquisitions is ever-present.

The competitive landscape is also evolving rapidly. New fintech startups are emerging with innovative solutions that could disrupt Intuit's dominance. These startups often leverage cutting-edge technologies and offer more flexible and affordable options, potentially attracting customers away from Intuit's established platforms.

Finally, the current economic climate presents uncertainties. While the economy has shown resilience, the possibility of a recession looms, which could significantly impact small businesses and, in turn, affect Intuit's revenue from its small business accounting software.

The company's ability to articulate a clear and compelling vision for its AI strategy, along with concrete evidence of its impact on revenue and profitability, could prove to be critical in setting up the next phase for INTU.